Big Al McMordie Available Picks

November, 04 2009 7:55pm EST
TOTAL: Over 9.5 (100)
WIN for +3 unit(s)

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees

At 7:55 pm our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees 'over' the total.  The Phillies sent their home town fans home happy on Monday night in the last game to be played at Citizens Bank Park in 2009 with an 8-6 victory over the Yankees.  The Philly bats broke out early in the game as they scored six of their eight runs in the first three innings before the Yanks came back to score four runs in the last two frames as once again the bullpen struggled.  Although the Yanks should have CC Sabathia ready to go should there be a game 7 on Thursday, they certainly would prefer to end it tonight so expect the Bronx Bombers to come out swinging in front of the home fans.  The weather has been in the 50s in Philadelphia for the three games played there, and it should continue to be on the warm side in the Bronx for game 6, which should definitely help with the run scoring.  They are also back in an American League park, which means both teams will be using the DH tonight.  Pedro Martinez gets the start for the Phillies and although he has had an illustrious career, he has struggled against the Yankees somewhat in October/November, having surrendered 21 earned runs in 40 1/3 innings against them in the post-season for a 4.69 ERA. Andy Pettitte will be pitching on 3 days' of rest, and he has had mixed results in this situation in his post-season career.  In the 2003 World Series he gave up an unearned run in 8 2-3 innings in a Yankee 6-1 win over Florida, but in the 2000 AL Division Series vs. Oakland, he surrendered 5 runs in 3 2-3 innings, but the Yanks came back to win that game 7-5.  Pettitte also pitched on 3 days' of rest in the 1996 and 1997 playoffs, and was great in 1996 (2 runs in 16 1-3 innings), but mediocre in 1997 (4 runs in 6 2-3 innings).  It has been well-chronicled that teams have not fared so well in the Playoffs, when starting a pitcher on 3 days' of rest.  Since 1999, the teams that have taken that risk, and faced an opponent who was starting a pitcher on at least 4 days' of rest, are a poor 11-29 (though 2-1 this post-season).  There were also 3 games in which both starters were working on 3 days' of rest.  Not surprisingly, most of these games have been high-scoring, with an average of 10.37 runs per game scored.  Of the 43 games in this set, 24 produced at least 10 runs; 17 produced eight runs or less; and two produced exactly nine runs.  The last five (dating back to 2007) have gone 'over' the total, including all three this post-season (Sabathia's 10-1 win over Anaheim; his 7-4 win over the Phillies; and Burnett's 8-6 loss on Monday night to the Phils).  Take the 'over' in Game 6.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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