Big Al McMordie Available Picks

December, 20 2008 11:00am EST
ATS: Navy Midshipmen +3 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Navy Midshipmen at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

At 11 am, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen plus the points over Wake Forest.  The storyline for this game is that it's a rematch of the game played September 27 at Wake Forest.  Navy upset the Demon Deacons 24-17 as 17-point underdogs, and benefitted from six Wake Forest turnovers (while turning it over just twice, itself).  And notwithstanding the turnovers, Navy also outgained Wake Forest 343 yards to 313.  A lot of folks will play Wake Forest here due to the "revenge" motive, but my database indicates this would be faulty reasoning.  Since 1980, there have been 10 Bowl rematches of regular season games, and the revenging teams are 4-6 straight-up and ATS, including 1-5 ATS in "win situation" games -- that is, games with a pointspread of three points or less, where the team that wins will most likely cover the spread.    Navy comes into this game playing great football, with back to back shutout wins over Army and Northern Illinois.  The Midshipmen outscored those two foes by a 50-0 count, and have not given up a point since losing to Notre Dame 27-21.  Navy is ranked #1 in rushing offense (for the 4th straight season), and has a two-headed monster in RBs Shun White (#3 nationally with 8.7 yards per rush) and Eric Kettani.  The Army win also marked the return of Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who was injured, coincidentally, in the 2nd quarter of the Wake Forest game.  Kaheaku-Enhada is the healthiest he's been all year, and looked terrific at the helm of the Navy triple-option attack vs. Army.  He's also been strong in practice this week, and that spells bad news for Wake Forest on Saturday.  The Demon Deacons are a very poor offensive team, and rank 103rd nationally in total offense.  Their inefficiency is most clearly revealed in their red zone stats:  in 41 trips inside an opponent's 20-yard line, Wake Forest has managed only 20 touchdowns.  In college football, one will go broke betting on favorites that have poor offenses.  In contrast, Navy is 24th in Red Zone offense, and Wake Forest is ranked next-to-last in Red Zone defense.  Look for Navy's #1-ranked rushing offense (298 yards per game) to be the difference here.  Take the points with the Midshipmen.

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