Big Al McMordie Available Picks

December, 20 2008 11:00am EST
ATS: Navy Midshipmen +3 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Navy Midshipmen at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

At 11 am, our selection is on the Navy Midshipmen plus the points over Wake Forest.  The storyline for this game is that it's a rematch of the game played September 27 at Wake Forest.  Navy upset the Demon Deacons 24-17 as 17-point underdogs, and benefitted from six Wake Forest turnovers (while turning it over just twice, itself).  And notwithstanding the turnovers, Navy also outgained Wake Forest 343 yards to 313.  A lot of folks will play Wake Forest here due to the "revenge" motive, but my database indicates this would be faulty reasoning.  Since 1980, there have been 10 Bowl rematches of regular season games, and the revenging teams are 4-6 straight-up and ATS, including 1-5 ATS in "win situation" games -- that is, games with a pointspread of three points or less, where the team that wins will most likely cover the spread.    Navy comes into this game playing great football, with back to back shutout wins over Army and Northern Illinois.  The Midshipmen outscored those two foes by a 50-0 count, and have not given up a point since losing to Notre Dame 27-21.  Navy is ranked #1 in rushing offense (for the 4th straight season), and has a two-headed monster in RBs Shun White (#3 nationally with 8.7 yards per rush) and Eric Kettani.  The Army win also marked the return of Navy QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, who was injured, coincidentally, in the 2nd quarter of the Wake Forest game.  Kaheaku-Enhada is the healthiest he's been all year, and looked terrific at the helm of the Navy triple-option attack vs. Army.  He's also been strong in practice this week, and that spells bad news for Wake Forest on Saturday.  The Demon Deacons are a very poor offensive team, and rank 103rd nationally in total offense.  Their inefficiency is most clearly revealed in their red zone stats:  in 41 trips inside an opponent's 20-yard line, Wake Forest has managed only 20 touchdowns.  In college football, one will go broke betting on favorites that have poor offenses.  In contrast, Navy is 24th in Red Zone offense, and Wake Forest is ranked next-to-last in Red Zone defense.  Look for Navy's #1-ranked rushing offense (298 yards per game) to be the difference here.  Take the points with the Midshipmen.

Big Al McMordie College Football Past Picks

College Football

Texas Longhorns @ Alabama Crimson Tide Thursday January 7, 2010 8:10 pm
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Texas Longhorns + the points over Alabama, as Texas falls into several of my best systems, with records of 44-14, 21-7, 82-42, 55-26, 65-26, 98-62, and 84-40 ATS.  Let's take a look at our 84-40 angle.  It goes against .500 (or better) teams ... read more

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College Football

Cincinatti Bearcats @ Florida Gators Friday January 1, 2010 8:30 pm
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bearcats plus the points over Florida.  This is a great matchup between two teams that have a combined record of 24-1, yet the focus is more on the coaches than the players.  Urban Meyer stunned the sports world when he announced ... read more

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College Football

Florida State Seminoles @ West Virginia Mountaineers Friday January 1, 2010 1:00 pm
At 1 pm, on New Year's Day, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles + the points over West Virginia.  The "marquee" game on New Year's Day may not be the Rose Bowl between Oregon and Ohio State, or the Sugar Bowl between Cincinnati and Florida, but rather this ... read more

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College Football

Tennessee Volunteers @ Virginia Tech Hokies Thursday December 31, 2009 7:30 pm
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Volunteers plus the points over Virginia Tech, as Tennessee falls into several of my best bowl systems (which have records of 65-25, 97-61, 68-37, 36-13 and 44-13 ATS). I've believed that Virginia Tech has been overrated for much of this ... read more

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College Football

Navy Midshipmen @ Missouri Tigers Thursday December 31, 2009 3:30 pm
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on Navy + the points over Missouri.  Over the last 19 years, no team has been a better "road warrior" than Navy, as the Midshipmen are an incredible 81-38 ATS when playing away from home, including 5-1 ATS in College Bowl games.  Additionally, ... read more

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College Football

Air Force Falcons @ Houston Cougars Thursday December 31, 2009 12:00 pm
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons plus the points over Houston.  The Cougars have quarterback Case Keenum, a Davey O'Brien Award finalist, and the nation's top-rated pass offense (450 ypg), but this is the worst match-up possible for Houston, as Air Force ... read more

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College Football

Bowling Green Falcons @ Idaho Vandals Wednesday December 30, 2009 4:30 pm
At 4:30 pm, our College Football Game of the Month is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Bowling Green, as Idaho falls into several of my best systems, which have records of 64-27, 18-9, 59-26, 76-40, and 50-25 ATS.  Bowling Green is, ostensibly, the hotter of the two clubs, ... read more

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College Football

Wisconsin Badgers @ Miami Florida Hurricanes Tuesday December 29, 2009 8:00 pm
At 8 pm, in the Champs Sports Bowl, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers + the points over Miami Fla.  This is a game where I don't quite understand the pointspread.  By my numbers, the game should be a PK'em, yet Wisconsin has been installed as an underdog of MORE ... read more

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College Football

UCLA Bruins @ Temple Owls Tuesday December 29, 2009 4:30 pm
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls plus the points over UCLA, as Temple falls into a 64-26 ATS system of mine that plays on certain teams in bowl games off upset losses to end the regular season.  Also, I have a 2nd bowl system that applies to the Owls that's 77-40 ... read more

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College Football

Texas A&M Aggies @ Georgia Bulldogs Monday December 28, 2009 5:00 pm
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies + the points over Georgia.  The Bulldogs come into this game with a porous defense that's given up over 26 ppg this year.  And that's a huge negative indicator for Bowl teams.  Indeed, since 1980, Bowl teams that ... read more

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