Big Al McMordie Available Picks

December, 30 2009 4:30pm EST
ATS: Idaho Vandals -1 (-110)
PUSH

Bowling Green Falcons at Idaho Vandals

At 4:30 pm, our College Football Game of the Month is on the Idaho Vandals + the points over Bowling Green, as Idaho falls into several of my best systems, which have records of 64-27, 18-9, 59-26, 76-40, and 50-25 ATS.  Bowling Green is, ostensibly, the hotter of the two clubs, as the Falcons have won and covered four straight coming into this game in Boise, Idaho.  In contrast, Idaho has lost three straight, and has failed to cover five in a row.  But two of those defeats (at Boise St on Nov. 14, and at home vs. Fresno on Nov. 7) came when Idaho was without its starting QB, Nathan Enderle.  Enderle was ranked #7 in the country this season with a 122.75 QB ranking, and Idaho's passing attack ranked 3rd in yards per attempt at 9.5, so I throw those two games out.  By doing so, that leaves Idaho with a rather impressive season.  The Vandals were 7-3 in the 10 games Enderle played, and covered seven of those games as well.  Granted, those seven pointspread wins came at the front of the schedule, and Idaho's three ATS losses with Enderle came at the end, but its last two ATS losses with Enderle were by an average of 3.5 ppg, so the Vandals were competitive.  Short-term results often create solid line value and, as I mentioned, Idaho falls into several super systems of mine.  Perhaps my favorite one plays on any team at home, or on a neutral-sited field, in a game with a pointspread less than 11, if our team is off a straight-up loss, and failed to cover its three previous games, while its foe is off three or more ATS wins.  And, if it's priced from +8 points to -1 point, then our system zooms to 17-1 ATS, 94.4%.  This game is, technically, not a home game for Idaho, as the Vandals play in Moscow, Idaho, but certainly the "neutral" Boise crowd will be rooting for the Vandals.  College Game of the Month on Idaho.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

College Football Past Picks

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Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers Monday January 9, 2012 8:30 pm
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Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers Monday January 9, 2012 8:30 pm
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Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers Monday January 9, 2012 8:30 pm
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Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers Monday January 9, 2012 8:30 pm
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