Basketball Gambling Pick Big Al McMordie May 27, 2008 Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

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May, 27 2008 9:00pm EST
ATS: Los Angeles Lakers +4 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs

Photo_nba At 9 pm, our selection is on the LA Lakers plus the points over San Antonio. On Sunday, Phil Jackson's men played lackluster in a 103-84 loss to the Spurs. They missed lots of free throws, as well as some easy shots they usually make. Clearly, for a team that went 29-9 to end the regular season, and 10-2 in its first 12 playoff games, to lose by 19 points was less a result of the Spurs' good play than the Lakers' lack of intensity. Indeed, this was the Lakers' worst loss (by far) since trading for Gasol (they have only lost three games by more than 10 points since February). But there is trouble in paradise, if you're a Spurs fan. Tony Parker had been defended well by Phil Jackson in the first two games, as the Lakers concentrating on keeping Parker out of the lane and forcing him into the corners. Going into this series, Parker was the one big advantage that San Antonio had (Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar can't guard him), but by funneling him into the corners, LA has limited his effectiveness. To counter the fact that San Antonio's bread-and-butter pick-and-roll offense was being defended superbly by the Lakers, the Spurs switched to a motion offense in Game 3, and found open shots to knock down. Heck, the Spurs even made shots when they weren't open (e.g., Ginobili's 5th three-pointer of the first half with Sasha Vujacic draped all over him, or Duncan's baseline throw-in with the 24-second shot clock expiring). Unfortunately, with a day to prepare, Jackson will have his troops ready to defend the Spurs' motion offense better, and we already saw the difficulty that San Antonio has had with its pick-and-roll offense. The Spurs' offense has been very unpredictable in this year's playoffs, with Ginoblil, Michael Finley, Robert Horry, Bruce Bowen, and Brent Barry looking downright awful at times. Kobe Bryant, on the other hand, is anything but unpredictable, and can be pencilled in for 30 points virtually every night -- even against a defensive superstar like Bowen. Finally, #1-seeded teams are a perfect 9-0 ATS as road dogs since 1991 off exactly one loss, if that loss was by 12 or more points, and they're matched up against .650 or better opponents. Take the points with Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.