Betting Doctor Available Picks

February, 07 2010 6:25pm EST
MONEYLINE: New Orleans Saints +170
WIN for +8.5 unit(s)

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts

Edge Colts, due to experience, with Saints a SB "virgin"? Maybe... teams in 1st SB vs a team with a past history are 6-11 ATS. Or maybe not... teams returning to a SB within L3Y are 1-7 ATS. Today's scenario is a repeat of LY, with the virgin Cardinals covering vs the experienced Steelers. During the '90's and early "oh-oh's", conventional wisdom had the SB as a blowout, but since then the Dog is on a 6-2 ATS run. It has been an off year for my PSPR. My favorite scenario (a +3 or more Dog that is a PSPR favorite) went only 23-23 ATS TY after 37-17 ATS L2Y! That scenario rears it (ugly?) head again here with New Orleans -3 on PSPR.

We can divide the Saint's season into 3 segments; all TO-related. Their 1st 12G they got 36 takeaways (12-0 SU), next 4G 3 takeaways (1-3 SU) and 7 takeaways in 2 playoff G (2-0 SU). An aggressive D regressed in large part due to injuries as a DL, 3 LB's and the 2 starting CB's returned for the post-season.

The Colts started a somewhat surprising and somewhat fortunate 14-0; 8 of those W were by SD. TY there were 5 teams that finished in the top half of the league on O in both run and pass; Dallas, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England... and New Orleans (#6 and #4). Indy faced only the Patriots, allowing 477 (364 YP) in a semi-miracle HW. The only other high-powered pass O they saw was Houston who averaged 389 yds in the 2G. The Colts were fortunate to get 2 run-dependent O's (Ravens #5, Jet's #1; but #18 and #31 pass respectively) @ H in the playoffs. We'll see how their D fares vs only the 2nd well-balanced O of the year.

Basically, given the match-ups, the line move (-3 to some -6's out there) and the PSPR, I think the value is in the Saints. Total-wise, this is the highest number in SB history. While TG looks Over-ish with 2 elite QB's running dangerous pass O's and a YP% of 269, I'm passing.

Super Bowl Prop's:

As always, the strategy here is to find some anomaly under-represented in the line. The lines are from an offshore sports book.

Will there be a score in 1st 7min 30sec of 1Q? No +226. L10Y only 1 SB 1Q has topped 7 pts.

First Score of the Game will be? FG or Safety +197. New Orleans and Indy rank #2 and #5 in Red Zone D TY with TD% allowed of 27 and 39 respectively.

1 Will both teams make a FG of 33+ yards in game? Yes +205. Playing off the above, we should see some FG attempts.

Will either team score 3 unanswered times in game? No +146. With these 2 O's, a back-and-forth G would not be a surprise.

How many yards will the 1st TD of the game be? 26-39 +800, 40-59 +1001, 60-79 +2501. Given these O's and special teams (#29 and #31 in KO coverage), a big play no surprise. How about a Saint's KO return TD after the 34 yd Indy FG that came with 7:29 left in 1Q? :)

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