November, 09 2008 4:05pm EST
ATS: Oakland Raiders +10 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders

I'm taking the points with OAKLAND. Not many people are going to want to back the Raiders here, as they were shutout by Atlanta last week. I believe that there has been an over- reaction to that result though and that the Raiders now offer us plenty of value. Keep in mind that prior to the Atlanta loss, the Raiders had played quite well in each of their previous two home games. In those games, they defeated the Jets outright and nearly beat San Diego, blowing that victory in the final minutes. Back to my point about line-value, the Chargers were laying 7.5 points for that game. Carolina is a solid team which has played well. Yet, the Panthers are still arguably not as powerful or explosive (at least on offense) as the Chargers. Additionally, the Panthers are also traveling from the East Coast, something the Chargers didn't have to do. Yet, Carolina is laying a bigger number than San Diego (or any other opponent) has laid here yet. While the Panthers do have the advantage of a bye week (note that they're just 6-9 SU the last 15 off a bye) they've really struggled on the road. They've gone 1-2 in three road games with the lone victory coming by just two points. Overall, they were outscored an average score of 23.7 to 13 in those games. It's also worth noting that the Panthers are just 1-4-2 ATS (2-5 SU) the last seven times they were coming off consecutive victories. They've been in that situation twice this season and they went 0-2 SU/ATS in the third game, getting outscored by a combined 47-13 margin. Look for the Raiders to bounce back with a much better effort, improving to 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as home underdogs of greater than eight points. *shocker gow

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