November, 13 2008 8:15pm EST
TOTAL: Under 42 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

New York Jets at New England Patriots

I'm playing on the Jets and Patriots to finish UNDER the total. This over/under line opened at 40 but has climbed all the way above the 41 mark. That probably doesn't sound like much but it's very important as both 40 and 41 are very common final scores in the NFL. While the additional line value is certainly an important factor, the reason I like this play so much is because of the excellent play by both defenses in recent weeks.

The Jets shutout the Rams for the first half last week and limited them to just three total points for the game. St. Louis managed a mere 200 total yards. The New England defense was arguably even better. The Patriots limited the Bills to 10 points and only 168 total yards, including a miniscule 58 in the second half.

Looking at the previous week and we find that the Jets limited the Bills to just 17 points while the Patriots gave up only 18 at Indianapolis. The Jets have now held four of their past five opponents to 17 points or less and are allowing an average of only 14.8 points per game during that stretch. Not to be outdone, the Pats have now given up 18 points or less in four straight games, allowing an average of just 10.25 per game during that stretch.

Back to my point about line value, these teams met in September and the over/under line was just 37 or 37.5. Yet, the teams combined for only 29 points, as New England won by a score of 19-10. Note that the Jets have seen the UNDER go 3-0 the last three times they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. Looking back further and we find that 18 of the last 19 series meetings have had over/under lines of 41.5 or less. Yet, here we've got two defenses playing great and no Tom Brady and we're still getting a line which is higher than 41.

The Jets have now won three straight. Despite last week's game finishing above the number (27 New York points came after the Rams had turned the ball over) the UNDER is still a profitable 35-18-3 the past 56 times that the Jets were coming off back to back victories. I'm expecting a well-played defensive affair with the UNDER improving to 6-2-1 the last nine times that the Patriots were favored by four points or less and 8-2 the last 10 times they played in November. *NFL Thursday TOY

Ben Burns Past Picks

NFL Football

Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings Sunday January 4, 2009 4:30 pm
I'm playing on the Eagles and Vikings to finish UNDER the total. Both these defenses are capable of being dominant. The Eagles allowed an average of just 8.7 points (247.7 yards) through their final three ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins Sunday January 4, 2009 3:00 pm
I'm taking the points with MIAMI. As you probably know, Baltimore defeated Miami here earlier in the season and comes in with the better record. For those reasons, the Ravens are the favored team, despite ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Indianapolis Colts @ San Diego Chargers Saturday January 3, 2009 8:00 pm
I'm playing on San Diego and Indianapolis to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other here about six weeks ago. That game had a total of 49.5 and the teams combined for just 43 points. I expect ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals Saturday January 3, 2009 4:30 pm
I'm taking the points with ARIZONA. The betting public is somewhat down on the Cardinals due in large part to the fact that they didn't look all that good down the stretch. However, I'm not overly concerned ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals Saturday January 3, 2009 4:30 pm
I'm playing on Arizona and Atlanta to finish UNDER the total. When most people think of the 2008 Cardinals, they think of a team with a porous defense. However, that description was only accurate when ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers Sunday December 28, 2008 4:15 pm
I'm playing on the Chargers and Broncos to finish UNDER the total. These teams were involved in a wild shootout earlier in the season in a game which sailed above the total. That result has helped cause ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday December 28, 2008 4:15 pm
I'm laying the points with SAN FRANCISCO. Last week, I successfully played on the Redskins while also successfully played against the 49ers. However, based partly on last week's results, this week, I ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Monday December 22, 2008 8:35 pm
I'm taking the points with GREEN BAY. The favored Bears have a few things going for them here. For starters, they are playing at home and they're also playing with 'revenge,' as the Packers pounded them ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

Houston Texans @ Oakland Raiders Sunday December 21, 2008 4:05 pm
I'm taking the points with OAKLAND. The Texans have been on a nice run of late and I've successfully played on them a couple of times in recent weeks, including in last week's big win over Tennessee. ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

NFL Football

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams Sunday December 21, 2008 1:00 pm
I'm taking the points with ST. LOUIS. When handicapping NFL games, motivation is always an important factor. However, in my opinion, it's particularly critical to understand "who wants it more" ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

More recent NFL past picks...