November, 17 2008 8:35pm EST
TOTAL: Under 41 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills

I'm playing on the Bills and Browns to finish UNDER the total. We've seen an awful lot of high-scoring games played on Monday nights this season. On a cold night at Buffalo, I expect tonight's game to prove to be the lowest-scoring of the bunch thus far. The Bills have struggled to score points of late. They've managed only 43 points the past three which, which is an average of only 14.33 per game. During that stretch, they've managed to average only 266 yards of offense per game. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone 3-0-1 their past four games. As the Bills are off three straight division losses, it's worth noting that the UNDER is 5-1-1 the last seven times the Bills were coming off back to back losses and 6-1-1 the last eight times they were coming off a loss vs. a division rival.

The Bills defense has been solid all season, particularly here at Buffalo. In four games here, opponents are averaging only 18.2 points and 264.7 yards of offense. While the Browns defense hasn't been very good recently, I do expect the Cleveland defenders to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. That's because the Browns have blown a couple of late leads recently and the offensive players have been pointing fingers at the defense. Note that Cleveland's defensive numbers are actually very respectable on the road this season. In fact, in their four road games, the Browns have allowed an average of just 17.7 points. They've only scored an average of 16 points in those games though, while managing an average of a mere 243 yards of offense in those games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 3-1 in their four road games.

The Bills have seen the UNDER go 17-8 the last 25 times that they played a game with an over/under line in the 35.5 to 42 range. That includes last year's meeting with the Browns. You may recall that December game. The over/under line was 37, yet the teams combined for a mere eight points, an 8-0 victory by the Browns. Look for tonight's game to again prove much lower-scoring than most are expecting. *MNF TOM

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