Ben Burns Available Picks

May, 28 2008 8:00pm EST
MONEYLINE: Pittsburgh Penguins -117
WIN for +2.56 unit(s)

Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins

I'm laying the price with the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS. The price on the Penguins has fallen considerably from what its opening number. I feel that this now gives us significant line value with a Pittsburgh team that is not viewing this series the same way the general public is. Yes, public perception says this series is over, as the Penguins haven't even scored a goal yet in this series. Evidently, they've forgotten what happened in the 2003 Stanley Cup Finals. You may recall that in that series, featuring New Jersey and Anaheim, it was the Devils who dominated the first two games on home ice, as goalie Martin Broduer led the way to consecutive shutouts. However, the Ducks went on to win the next two games on home ice at The Pond in Anaheim and suddenly an actual "series" was underway. The Ducks eventually lost the series but not before putting a major "scare" into New Jersey in a series that ended up going the full seven games. Certainly, Pittsburgh is capable of a similar result in this season's Stanley Cup Finals. Indeed, the Penguins haven't lost a game on their home ice in three months. Pens goalie Marc-Andre Fleury hasn't lost a game on home ice since before Thanksgiving, as he's gone 18-0 in Pittsburgh since then! The Penguins are NOT hanging their heads for this game like many cynics would have you believe. Pittsburgh does believe in their own home ice edge and they also believe that it "only takes one" to turn this thing around. One goal leads to one strong game leads to one win and, just like that, they're back in the series. Keep in mind that, as bad as the Penguins looked in the first two games, they could get right back into this series simply by defending their home ice just as they've done perfectly over the last three months! The Penguins also get a scheduling break here. There are likely to be more line changes from head coach Michel Therrien heading into what is truly a "must win" Game Three. We could even see Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby back on the same line like they were back in the 2006-07 season. Keep in mind the Red Wings aren't necessarily destined to be perfect here either. Detroit won the first two games against the Predators earlier in this postseason only to lose the next two to Nashville. They also got up three games to none on Dallas but then allowed the Stars to rally back as the Red Wings lost the next two games. Indeed, this series is far from over, and the Penguins, 11-5 (+6.8) after scoring one goal or less in their previous game, prove that on Wednesday night. *Main Event