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June, 02 2008 8:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 5 (-120)
WIN for +4.17 unit(s)

Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings

I'm playing on the Penguins and Red Wings to finish OVER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in the first game of this series. That game had a total of 5.5, as did the next game. After those games, both at Detroit, stayed below the number, the over/under line dropped to five for the two games at Pittsburgh. Tonight, the series has shifted back to Detroit, yet the total has remained at five. While the 'under' has gone 3-0-1 through the first four games, with this being an elimination game, I feel that the OVER offers us excellent value.  

The Penguins only played three road games with totals of five this season. All three games finished above then number. Looking back further and we find the OVER at 58-43 (excluding pushes) during the past dozen years when the Penguins played a road game with a total of five or less. During the same stretch, the Wings have seen the OVER go a highly profitable 84-58 (excluding pushes) when playing a home game with a total of five or less, including a 9-6 mark this season.

Through the first four games, this series has had a number of similarities to last year's Stanley Cup Finals. In that 2007 series, like this year, the Western Conference representative (Anaheim) began the series by "holding serve" and winning both the first two games on home ice. Like the Wings were in the first two games on their home ice this year, the Ducks were dominant defensively in those first two games, holding a high-powered Ottawa attack to just two combined goals (2 and 0) in those two games. Those two games saw just six combined goals scored, one less than the seven which were scored in the first two games at Detroit this season. The similarities don't end there though. Like this season, the Eastern Conference representative (Ottawa) returned home, down 0-2, and managed to win Game 3. Once again, like this season, the team from the Western Conference responded by winning Game 4 on the road, to take a 3-1 lead. So, what happened in Game 5? The Ducks won the Cup and the teams combined for a whopping eight goals. Look for history to repeat itself once again, as the Penguins and Wings play the highest-scoring game of their series tonight. *Playoff TOY

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