Ben Burns Available Picks

August, 07 2008 7:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 32 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

New York Giants at Detroit Lions

I'm playing on the Giants and Lions to finish UNDER the total. This year's Hall of Fame Game finished well above the total and at first glance tonight's over/under line seems quite low. However, there's good reason for the low number, as the opening round of the preseason is typically very low-scoring. Last year, 10 of the 17 games (including HOF) produced less than 34 points. That was also the case in 2006, with the games averaging less than 32 points overall. The UNDER was 21-11-2 in the first round and HOF round in those two seasons.

As you know, starters don't see much playing time in the opening round, meaning the 2nd and third stringers, along with other players that won't even make the roster, see the bulk of the action. Most coaches and players will agree that it's harder for these non-starters to learn the offensive schemes than it is the defensive ones. Some teams/coaches do play starters a little longer than others. However, in this case, I expect both teams to play things very conservatively and for the backups to see the vast majority of the action. Coming off a Super Bowl victory, the Giants clearly have nothing to prove. Manning won't see much action with Coughlin commenting: "We'll probably try to play them all, Eli just a little bit and then play the other guys." The fact that the defending champs are banged-up, particularly at the wide-receiver spot, should help ensure that the focus is on avoiding further injuries.

As for the Lions, they've got the same defensive coordinator (Joe Barry) as they had last season and they're running the "Tampa 2" for the third year. In other words, many of the players are familiar with their roles. However, they've got a new offensive coordinator with pass-happy Mike Martz being replaced by Jim Colletto. Like the Giants, the Lions have some injury concerns at the wide-receiver spot, including Shaun McDonald (knee) and tight end Dan Campbell (elbow) who are both expected to miss the game entirely. with Martz gone, the Lions focus this season is on running the ball and controlling the clock on offense and playing aggressive defense. Coach Marinelli even had t-shirts made for camp saying: "Attack & defend every blade of grass." Look for their new attitude to be on display this evening as this game proves to be lower-scoring than most are expecting. *Blue Chip