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May, 11 2008 8:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 188.5 (-110)
WIN for +4.55 unit(s)

New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs

I'm playing on the Spurs and Hornets to finish UNDER the total. As a result of a high-scoring game on Thursday, we're now getting several extra points to work with which, in my opinion, has provided us with outstanding value on the UNDER. Just because Game 3 is high-scoring, doesn't mean that Game 4 will be. In fact, the opposite is often the case. We only need to look back at the Spurs opening round series for an example. The Spurs and Suns combined for 214 points in Game 3, finishing well above the total of 196.5. Expecting another high-scoring affair, the bettors jumped on the 'over' for Game 4, causing the total to climb above the 200 mark. Yet, the teams combined for 'only' 191 points, falling well below the inflated number. Yesterday's game from the Detroit/Orlando series provides another excellent example. The Pistons and Magic combined for 197 points in Game 3, causing the Game 4 total to climb slightly. Yet, Game 4 resulted in a defensive battle with only 179 total combined points scored. The fact that the Spurs won Game 3 is noteworthy as the Hornets have seen the UNDER go an impressive 27-12 this season when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting. Note that the UNDER is also 5-2 when the Hornets have been listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Thursday's result notwithstanding, the Spurs have still seen the UNDER go 15-7 the last 22 times that they were trailing in a playoff series. Look for both teams to clamp down defensively and for the final combined score to stay well beneath the generous number. *Western Conference Total of the Year

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