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May, 13 2008 9:30pm EST
TOTAL: Under 186.5 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets

I'm playing on the Spurs and Hornets to finish UNDER the number. With a convincing win by the defending champs on Sunday, we're headed back to New Orleans all tied up at 2-2. I expect that to translate to a defensive battle. Including the playoffs, the Spurs have been underdogs 20 times this season and they've seen the UNDER go 12-7-1 in those games. Overall, the UNDER is 52-37-2 in their games, including a 30-19-2 mark against teams with a winning record. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 88-62-4 (59%) the past three seasons when the Spurs have faced a team with a winning record. As for the Hornets, they've seen the UNDER go 27-22-2 against winning teams this season and 67-56-4 the past three seasons. More impressively, they've seen the UNDER go 28-12 when facing a team which defeated them in the previous meeting and a profitable 73-52-1 (58.4%) in that situation the past three seasons. Taking a look at the line and we find that the number is down a bit from what it was last game. However, it's still higher than it was for any of the first three games, as those lines were all on or around 183. Tonight's number gives us an extra few points to work with, which I feel provides us with excellent value. Note that three of the first four games produced 186 points or less. Look for both teams to fiercely contest every shot and for the UNDER to improve to 9-3 on the year when the Hornets played a home game where the total ranged between 185 and 189.5 points. *Annihilator

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