Ben Burns Available Picks

May, 14 2008 10:30pm EST
TOTAL: Under 213.5 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers

I'm playing on the Lakers and Jazz to finish UNDER the number. This series has shown a pattern of rotating from one game finishing 'under' the total to the next one finishing 'over' the total. Game 1, here at Utah, was (relatively) low-scoring with 207 points. Game 2 was high-scoring with 220. The defense improved again in Game 3 with the teams combining for just 203. Last time, was another high-scoring game with 238. Note that with each game that's gone 'over' the number, the total has climbed for the next game (and vice versa) and that's been the case again here, as the Game 4 line was only 210.5. That gives us some additional line value with a few extra points to work with. I don't believe that we'll need it though, as I expect that with the series tied 2-2, tonight will be the lowest-scoring game of the series yet. Note that both last night's Game 5 matchups were defensive in nature, both falling beneath the posted total. Yes, the Jazz have been scoring a lot of points lately. Keep in mind that they closed out April by failing to reach triple-digits in scoring in six straight games, averaging only 85 points per game during that stretch. The Jazz have learned the value of slowing things down against high-powered offenses and they've seen the UNDER go 24-16 when matched up against another opponent which averages 99 or more points per game. Note that they've also seen the UNDER go 18-13 after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game and 3-1 when listed as a road underdog in the +6.5 to +9 range. Overall, the UNDER is 10-6 their last 16 games. While the Lakers can certainly score points with the best of them, that still often isn't enough to compensate for the inflated totals in their games. They enter tonight's game having finished below the number in five of their last seven games. On the season, they saw the UNDER go 24-18 when playing a game with an over/under line of 210 or higher. Like the Jazz, they also tend to bounce back with a strong defensive performance after a poor one the previous time out. They saw the UNDER go 22-14 after allowing 105 or more in their previous game. Kobe Bryant is expected to play and he'll surely get his share of points. That being said, he may not be 100% and therefore may not be quite as potent as normal. Regardless, look for a relatively low-scoring affair with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number and the UNDER improving to 9-3 the past dozen times that the Lakers played with two day's rest in between games. *Western Conf. TOW