Ben Burns Available Picks

May, 29 2008 9:00pm EST
ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -8 (-110)
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San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers

(ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -8 (-110))

I'm laying the points with the LA LAKERS. I have a great deal of respect for the defending champions and they've been very good to me throughout these playoffs. That being said, I feel that their season will come to an end tonight. As you're probably aware and as I mentioned in my analysis of Tuesday's game, the Spurs are an older team which benefited from several extra days of rest throughout the first two rounds. They're not enjoying that luxury in this round though and the grind of playing every other night, combined with the fact that they had to go the full seven vs. the Hornets, appears to have caught up with them. Perhaps more important than the Spurs' physical fatigue is the emotional exhaustion that I expect them to be feeling after a grueling and emotionally draining Game 5 loss. For starters, the Spurs know that Tuesday's loss was a backbreaker. Despite never leading in their series vs. the Hornets (until they won it in Game 7) the Spurs never had to deal with losing at home. That's happened now though and they know that winning three straight against this very strong Lakers team, two of them at LA, is truly going to be a monumental task. A big part of the reason why I feel that the Spurs will have trouble 'bouncing back' on the road is the manner in which they lost Game 4. Trailing all night, several times they battled all the way back, only to have the Lakers pull away again. Then, to battle all the way back one last time, only to not get the foul call at the end of the game, that's a tough pill to swallow - even for a team with the poise and experience of the defending champs. Of course, winning at LA is no easy task, regardless of what the Spurs' mindset is. The Lakers have won 13 straight games here, including a 30 point (101-71) destruction of the Spurs here in Game 2 of this series. Some teams regularly experience a letdown when coming off an upset victory in their previous game. The Lakers aren't one of those teams. Indeed, they've gone 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS the last dozen times that they were coming off a SU win as an underdog in their previous game. Phil Jackson will make sure that his team "smells the blood in the water" tonight and I look for a convincing double-digit victory to close out the series. *Western Conference Finals Game of the Year.

May, 29 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 193.5 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

TOTAL: Over 193.5 (-110)

I'm playing on the Spurs and Lakers to finish OVER the total. The first four games of this series have stayed below the total. That's helped keep tonight's number generously low, currently a bucket lower than it was for the opening game here. Despite Game 2 of this series falling below the number, note that the Over remains a solid 9-4-1 the past three seasons when the Lakers have played a home game with an over/under line ranging from 190 to 194.5. Looking back further and we find the Over at a highly profitable 70-39-4 the last 113 times that they played a home game with an over/under line in that range. That's better than 64% gaining more than 27 units of profit vs. a -110 line. While the last game ended up with only 184 points, it was actually on pace to finish above the total as they had 100 points at halftime and 147 heading into the fourth quarter. Only a 37 point final quarter kept the game below the number. Considering that the teams combined for 71 in the fourth quarter in the previous game and considering that the Spurs are now playing an elimination game, I fully expect to see significantly more than 37 points in the fourth tonight. It's also worth noting that Kobe Bryant didn't get a single free throw attempt in that game. Back at LA, it's pretty safe to assume that he'll be getting to the line more than a few times tonight. The Lakers average more than 110 points per game on this floor for the year and they've seen the OVER go 10-7 when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range. Looking back further and we find the OVER at a lucrative 27-14 the last 41 times they've been in that role, dating back to the start of the 2006 season. The first four games of the Eastern Conference Finals averaged just 177.5 points. However, the teams exploded for a combined 208 in last night's Game 5, the highest scoring game of that series. Look for the West to mimic the East tonight as Game 5 proves to be the highest-scoring game of the series to date. *Western Conf. TOM