June, 15 2008 9:05pm EST
TOTAL: Over 191 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers

I'm playing on the Lakers and Celtics to finish OVER the total. After back to back games which stayed below the number, I believe that we're getting excellent value with the OVER here. On the topic of "line value," let's keep in mind that the over/under line was 195.5 for the first game here (Game 3) and that the over/under lines were 198 and 205.5 for the regular season meetings.  Despite the Game 4 result, let's also remember that the OVER remains a highly profitable 70-41-4 (63%) the last 115 times that the Lakers played a home game with a total ranging from 190 to 194.5. Speaking of Game 4, it was easily on pace to finish above the total if the Lakers hadn't managed a mere 33 points in the second half. Even with that horrendous offensive effort in the second half, the game still finished with 188 points, just barely staying below the total. I believe that it's safe to say that the Lakers are NOT going to be held to 33 points in the second half again. You may recall that I said something similar after Game 1, when the Lakers managed only 15 points in the fourth quarter. They responded with 41 fourth quarter points in Game 2 (teams combined for 66!) in a game that finished with 210 combined points, the highest scoring game of the series. It should also be pointed out that Game 2, the only game of the series which went OVER, was the only previous game in this series in which both the teams had two day's rest in between games. Every other game (except Game 1, where the Lakers had many days off between games) was played with just one day's rest in between games.

Including the Game 2 result, the OVER is 19-14 since 2006 when the Lakers have played with two day's rest in between games. During that stretch, they've seen the OVER go 27-16 when listed as home favorites in the -6.5 to -9 range and 76-61-1 in their home games overall. Look for Game 5 to also be higher-scoring than most are expecting, as the OVER improves to 12-5 the last 17 times that the Lakers were coming off a game in which they lost outright when they were listed as favorites. *Main Event

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