Ben Burns Available Picks

June, 10 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 195.5 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers

I'm playing on the Lakers and Celtics to finish UNDER the total. I had the 'over' in both games at Boston. In the opening game, the teams had 97 points at the half and 150 heading into the fourth quarter. Yet, due to an extremely low-scoring (36 points) fourth quarter, the game managed to sneak below the total. The second game saw the teams combine for 96 at halftime and 144 in the third. Yet, due to an extremely high-scoring (66 points) fourth quarter, the final combined score sailed above the number with 210 combined points. Although the defense was even better through the first three quarters of Game 2 than it was for the first three quarters of Game 1, the majority of the betting public only remembers the final score and that the teams were seemingly scoring at will in the fourth quarter. That has the masses expecting a shootout and has helped cause the line to climb, which, in my opinion, has given us excellent value with the UNDER. The lack of defense which was played in the fourth quarter was, of course, seen by the coaches. Neither coach was pleased with their team's defensive and I expect both to really emphasize giving a maximum effort on that side of the ball for Game 3.

Throughout most of the regular season the Celtics were solid defensively on the road and dominant defensively at home. However, in recent weeks, they've also really elevated their level of defensive intensity when playing away from Boston. In fact, in their last five road games, the Celtics have held all five opponents to less than 95 points and to an average of only 83.4 points. During that 5-game stretch, they also failed to reach 95 points themselves while averaging a mere 80.8. Not surprisingly, the UNDER was a perfect 5-0 in those games. The Game 2 result notwithstanding, it's also worth noting that the UNDER is 12-7 the last 19 times that the Celtics were listed as underdogs and 4-1-1 the last six times that they played a road game with an over/under line ranging from 195 to 199.5. During the same stretch, the Lakers saw the UNDER go 4-2 when playing a home game with a total ranging from 195 to 199.5. That includes an UNDER with their first home game vs. the Spurs. That game had an over/under line of 196 but produced a mere 174 points. While the other two games, played at LA, in that series had lower over/under lines, they were also both of the low-scoring variety, finishing with 172 and 192. The Lakers have seen 'Game 3' stay below the number in all three of their series thus far. Look for tonight's final combined score to be lower than expected once again. *Main Event