Ben Burns Available Picks

May, 30 2008 8:30pm EST
TOTAL: Under 175.5 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons

(TOTAL: Under 175.5 (-110))

I'm playing on Boston and Detroit to finish UNDER the number. These teams exploded for 208 points in Game 5. Considering that these were the two best defenses in the league this season, that type of "explosion" is the exception when they get together, rather than the norm. Indeed, the UNDER remains a healthy 10-3 the last 13 times these teams have gotten together. With the series shifting back to Detroit, where both games stayed below the total, I'm expecting things to revert back to "normal" and for the defenses to take center stage. Note that the number has remained generously high (relatively speaking) due to Wednesday's result.

Looking at a few stats and we find that the UNDER is 8-2 the last 10 times that the Pistons were listed as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Including the earlier results here, the UNDER is also 6-1 the last seven times the Pistons played a home game where the total ranged between 170 and 179.5 points, 13-7-1 their last 21 in that situation. Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, the UNDER is 5-0 the last five times that the Pistons come off a game in which they allowed 105 points or more. The last time they allowed an opponent to surpass the 105 mark (Magic scored 111 in Game 3 of that series) they responded by holding Orlando, the highest scoring team in the East, to 89 points on its home floor. The last three times that the Celtics have allowed triple-digits in scoring, they responded by allowing 65, 88 and 80 points. All three of those games stayed below the number, two of them by double-digits. Look for the final combined score to be lower than most are expecting once again with the UNDER improving to 6-1 the last seven times the Celtics were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. *Blue Chip

May, 30 2008 8:30pm EST
ATS: Boston Celtics +5.5 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

ATS: Boston Celtics +5.5 (-110)

I'm taking the points with BOSTON. I won with the Pistons in each of the last two games. However, I now believe that the "value" now lies with the visiting Celtics. While the Celtics home/road disparity was well documented through the first two rounds, they've now managed to get a road win under their belts and the road team has covered three of the last four games in this series. Last game came down to the wire and tonight's game could easily do so again, making taking the points a valuable proposition. The Pistons got a gritty effort from their leader Chauncey Billups last time out and he'll surely be back in the starting lineup. However, he's still not 100% healthy and now they've got the additional problem of a banged-up (currently questionable) Richard Hamilton, their leading scorer through the regular season. Despite a 3-2 ATS mark through the first five games of this series, let's keep in mind that the Pistons are still just 4-13 ATS their last 17 games in the Conference Finals, losing 11 of those games outright. Let's also keep in mind that the Celtics won more road games (31) than any team in the league this regular season.

Of course, coach Doc Rivers is saying all the right things: "We don't want to go to a Game 7. We want to win this now if we can. They're not going to let us win it. We're going to have to come in and take it." He went on to say: "They've been in situations before. They're a mentally tough team, and we're going to have to play the game of our lives to go up there and win. But I think we're capable of doing that." While saying and doing are two different things, I agree with Rivers that the Celts are capable of ending the series tonight. Knowing the Lakers are already waiting/resting and looking to avoid a third straight Game 7, look for the Celts to give a massive effort, improving to 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3 to +6 range. *Main Event