Ben Burns Available Picks

June, 08 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 190.5 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics

(TOTAL: Over 190.5 (-110))

I'm playing on the Celtics and Lakers to finish OVER the total. Despite a relatively slow start (44 points in the first quarter) Game 1 was still on pace to finish OVER the total before the teams combined for just 36 points in the fourth quarter. That's kept tonight's number reasonably low, which I feel has given us excellent value with the OVER. While nothing is for certain, I feel it's highly unlikely that teams will combine for so few points in the fourth quarter again tonight. Although they were also playing an elite defensive team (San Antonio) in the Western Conference Finals, the Lakers still saw two of their last three fourth quarters produce more than 60 combined points. The Celtics closed out their series with the Pistons by seeing 53, 46, 46, 53 and 42 points in their respective fourth quarters. Again, the point I am trying to emphasize is that I don't expect to see another 36-point fourth quarter.

While the Celtics were favored in the opener, it's now the Lakers who find themselves listed as very slight favorites. That's worth noting as we find the OVER at 6-2 the last eight times that the Lakers were listed as road favorites of -3 points or less and 12-5 their last 17 in that situation. Looking back further and we find the OVER at a highly profitable 53-35-1 (better than 62%) their last 89 in that situation.

I'm well aware that the Celtics possess a great defense and I also respect the Lakers' defensive skills. That being said, I still don't believe that the offenses are being given enough credit. The Celtics averaged 98 points per game this season, including 99.5 here at home. Despite coming off back to back series' vs. a pair of strong defensive teams, they've still scored a minimum of 96 points in 11 of their last 14 games here. They'll face an LA squad which averaged a whopping 108 on the season, including 105.8 on the road. The Lakers have scored a minimum of 98 points in 17 of their last 21 road games and they managed a minimum of 92 in all 20 of those games, prior to their 88 in Game 1 of this series. These teams met twice in the regular season and both games finished with exactly 201 points. The over/under lines were 198 for the game at LA and 205 for the game here at Boston. Look for the final combined score to finish above tonight's significantly lower number with the OVER improving to 8-2 the last 10 times that the Lakers were favored by two points or less. *Annihilator

June, 08 2008 9:00pm EST
ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -1 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -1 (-110)

I'm playing on the LA LAKERS. As you know, the Celtics took Game 1. Despite a poor shooting performance from Kobe and generally getting out-hustled overall, the Lakers were able to keep things close almost the entire way, leading for a good part of that time. Really, it wasn't just Kobe either, as almost the entire team disappeared down the stretch. Yet, there they were - within striking distance right until the end. While I lost with the Lakers in Game 1, I fully expect them to respond with a much better overall effort here.


Playing in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics got to beat up on a lot of mediocre opponents throughout the regular season. The Lakers were challenged nearly every game in the vastly superior Western Conference. They were already a really strong team and they became an elite one with the addition of Gasol. Like Kobe, Gasol will be highly motivated to bounce back with a much better effort in Game 2. The Lakers beat Denver, Utah and San Antonio to get here and did so with relative ease. The Celtics, on the other hand, had a relatively difficult time with the likes of Altanta, Cleveland and Detroit - arguably a weaker opponent in each round. Despite the Game 1 loss, the Lakers are still playing at a very high level right now, as evidenced by their 12-5-1 ATS (14-4 SU) record their last 18 games. The Celtics, on the other hand, are still just 8-12 ATS their past 20 games, including a money-burning 4-8 ATS mark their last 12. The Celtics haven't been particularly strong when leading in a series during these playoffs and you'll recall that they were beaten by six points by the Pistons in Game 2 of their last series, after having won Game 1. The Lakers won road games at Denver, Utah and most recently San Antonio and they're still a highly profitable 31-16-2 ATS on the road for the year. With Kobe hitting a much higher percentage of his shots, trailing for the first time in these playoffs, look for the Western Conference champs to even things up with a convincing victory here. *June 'blowout' gom