Ben Burns Available Picks

June, 30 2008 7:10pm EST
MONEYLINE: Tampa Bay Rays -141
WIN for +2.13 unit(s)

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. This is a huge game and series for both teams, as they're currently neck and neck for first place in the AL East. It's arguably more important for the Rays though, particularly as they have lost six straight in the series. Note that all six of those games came at Fenway and that the Rays did win all three earlier series meetings played here in St. Petersburg. Not that any additional "motivation" should be needed, but the Rays should be "extra hungry" for some payback, as the last meeting between these teams saw the Rays lose 7-1 and saw both benches clear in a brawl which would eventually result in eight players getting suspended. Today's starter, James Shields was the starter in that game and it's safe to say that he'll be fired up to serve up some payback. At the time, when asked about the incident, Shields was quoted as saying: "I protected my own players and that's what we need to do around here. We've been getting stomped around the last 10 years and it isn't going to happen anymore. I had to let them know early and let them know right away."

The fact that Shields struggled at Fenway shouldn't come as a huge surprise, as he is 2-4 with an ugly 6.09 ERA in eight road starts. However, he's been a completely different pitcher here at home. Indeed, in eight home starts, he's gone 3-1 with an outstanding 1.99 ERA and 0.921 WHIP. Not surprisingly, the Rays were a profitable 7-1 (+5.7) in those eight games. That includes a complete-game 2-hit shutout against these same Red Sox, when Shields faced them here back in April. Shields, who has a highly impressive 23 K's to just two walks in his last three starts, had 7 K's to just one walk in that 3-0 victory. Overall, the Rays are 30-13 at home.

The Red Sox, who are just 19-24 on the road, send Justin Masterson to the mound. Masterson was "nothing special" in his last start, as he allowed seven hits, four walks and four runs in six innings. Masterson will be supported by a Boston bullpen which has struggled recently and which has been mediocre on the road all year. On the other hand, Shields will be backed by a Tampa Bay bullpen which has a combined 1.91 ERA and 0.997 WHIP here at home. Look for Shields to continue his strong pitching here at home, as he outduels Masterson, handing the Red Sox their third straight loss and dropping them to 12-21 their last 33 games when playing in a dome. *June GOM