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*RED ALERT* Burns' Monday Night GAME OF THE MONTH!
Ben Burns has enjoyed success in games involving the Super Bowl champs again this season, incl. a winner ON the Giants over the Skins & a winner AGAINST the Giants when they failed to cover vs. the Bengals, a game that went to OT. Burns returns with another BIG play involving the defending champs. It's his HIGHEST RATED MNF play in October!

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July, 01 2008 7:10pm EST
TOTAL: Over 8.5 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

I'm playing on the Red Sox and Rays to finish OVER the number. In order to succeed in real estate or the stock market, one must seek out "value" with all purchases, finding stocks or properties which are priced lower than they should be. Naturally, the same holds true for sports-betting and over/under plays are certainly no exception.

I believe that tonight's over/under line, which is currently down to as low as 8.5 at several shops, is too low and that it offers us excellent line value. For starters, let's consider that Garza has faced the Red Sox twice already this season, with one of those starts coming against Wakefield and the other coming against Masterson. While those games both finished with nine or more combined runs (5-4 and 7-4) the point that I want to emphasize is that those two games BOTH had over/under lines of 10, a significant jump from either 8.5 or 9.

While he is coming off a gem in his last start (at Florida) note that Garza wasn't particularly sharp in either game vs. Boston, as he failed to pitch more than 5 1/3 innings in either outing. In those two starts he had allowed 10 runs (8 earned) in just 10 1/3 innings. The fact that the Red Sox are seeing him for the third time already likely won't help Garza much either. While he only allowed four runs (3 earned) through six innings, Wakefield struggled when he opposed Garza here earlier, as he issued five walks while only striking out one batter. Looking back a bit further and we find that Wakefield's last three starts vs. the Rays have ALL finished with a minimum of nine combined runs, averaging 14.67 per game. Those three games had over/under lines of 10, 10 and 9.5. Wakefield hasn't been all that sharp on the road for some time now, as evidenced by the fact that he's 1-3 with a 4.37 ERA in nine road starts. The OVER was 3-1-1 in the last five of those road outings, with four of the five finishing with nine or more runs. As for the bullpens, the Red Sox showed that they can get to the Rays in the late innings last night, as they scored two in the ninth inning, nearly rallying for the tie. The Red Sox bullpen has been mediocre on the road all season, entering the series with a combined 4.38 ERA in games played outside of Boston. All things considered, as already stated, I believe the number is too low and I look for the final combined score to be higher than most are expecting. *AL TOW