August, 23 2008 3:55pm EST
TOTAL: Under 9 (-120)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals

I'm playing on St. Louis and Atlanta to finish UNDER the number. After seeing an extremely high-scoring series opener many people automatically assume that the next game will also produce a lot of runs. However, I've often found the opposite to be true. Rather than the bats 'heating up,' it can almost be as if they used up too many hits/runs the previous day. Regardless of what happened yesterday, this selection is based on what I expect to see on the field today. Knowing his tendency to struggle on the road, I successfully played against Lohse in his last start, a 7-3 loss at Cincinnati. However, he's been much better at home. In his last 10 starts here, he's allowed three earned runs or less seven times and four earned runs or less nine times. For the season, he's 7-2 with an excellent 3.08 ERA and 1.057 WHIP in 15 starts here, averaging 6 2/3 innings per start. The UNDER was 10-4-1 in those games. Lohse got crushed by the Braves back in 2002. However, he's allowed two earned runs each of the last three times that he's faced them, the last two of which both finished UNDER the total.

Unlike Lohse, Campillo has been significantly better when pitching on the road. He's 3-4 with a 4.18 ERA at home. However, he's 4-2 with an outstanding 2.13 ERA on the road. He's also 4-1 with a stellar 2.63 ERA when pitching during the day. Campillo started against the Cards last month and allowed just two earned runs through seven complete innings. Even with yesterday's slugfest finishing well above the total, the Braves have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 20-7-2 when playing a road game with a total of either nine or 9.5. Look for the bats go cold, as those numbers get even better this afternoon. *TV Total of the Month

Ben Burns Past Picks

MLB Baseball

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies Monday October 27, 2008 8:20 pm
I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. Normally, I don't like to lay this kind of price on a baseball game. However, Game 5 of the World Series isn't a "normal" situation and Cole Hamels is ... read more

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays Thursday October 23, 2008 8:20 pm
I'm laying the price with TAMPA BAY. I passed on yesterday's opener. I really didn't want to play against Cole Hamels but I also respected Kazmir and didn't want to play against the Rays in this park. ... read more

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Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Sunday October 19, 2008 8:07 pm
I'm laying the price with BOSTON. One could make a case for the Rays here, as Garza was better than Lester last time out. That was just one start though and Lester has been consistently better for a much ... read more

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Boston Red Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays Saturday October 18, 2008 8:07 pm
I'm playing on the Red Sox and Rays to finish UNDER the total. As you know, Game 5 was a thriller which produced 15 runs. I'm expecting a much lower final score on Saturday though. Shields was great in ... read more

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Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox Thursday October 16, 2008 8:07 pm
I'm laying the price with BOSTON. The Rays have proven that they weren't just happy to be here and that their excellent regular season wasn't a fluke. That being said, I expect the Red Sox to have the ... read more

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday October 15, 2008 8:22 pm
I'm playing on the Phillies and Dodgers to finish UNDER the total. Since the first game of this series finished below the total, we've seen three consecutive games finish above the number. Game 1 starter ... read more

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Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday October 12, 2008 8:22 pm
I'm laying the price with the LA DODGERS. Down 0-2, naturally this is a massive game for the Dodgers. Indeed, no National League team has ever recovered from an 0-3 deficit in a playoff series. Of course, ... read more

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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies Thursday October 9, 2008 8:22 pm
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox Monday October 6, 2008 5:05 pm
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox Sunday October 5, 2008 4:05 pm
I'm laying the price with the CHICAGO WHITE SOX. The Rays have been a great story and they've been terrific at home all season. They haven't been nearly as good on the road though, while the White Sox ... read more

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