Ben Burns Available Picks

June, 30 2008 10:10pm EST
MONEYLINE: Toronto Blue Jays -155
WIN for +1.94 unit(s)

Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners

I'm laying the price with TORONTO. Both teams are playing much better than when they faced each other at Toronto a few weeks ago. Of course, that's likely due in part to the fact that both clubs have new managers. The Jays have a winning record under Cito Gaston and are now 5-2 their last seven. Despite being 10 games back in the AL East, this Toronto team is actually starting to believe that it still has a chance at competing for a playoff spot. Not only do they have one of the better pitching staffs in all of baseball but the bats are also starting to come to life, yesterday's 1-0 win notwithstanding.

The Mariners come off a rare sweep. However, they've still got the worst record in baseball, have absolutely no hope at competing for the playoffs, and tonight they'll be at a serious disadvantage on the mound. Halladay comes off a rare tough start. Rare is the key word there though, as the Jays' ace "rarely" gets knocked around, let alone twice in a row. Note that in his previous start, which was his most recent road outing, Halladay tossed seven shutout innings. The competitive Halladay will be determined to bounce back with a big effort here, particularly after watching AJ Burnett dominate the Braves yesterday. Note that Halladay has a excellent 2.85 ERA and 1.115 WHIP on the road for the season. That compares very favorably to Dickey's home stats. Indeed, in two starts here Dickey has gone 0-2 with an unbelievably bad 20.22 ERA and 3.745 WHIP. To put it another way, in two starts (only 5 1/3 innings between the two!) here this season, Dickey has allowed 20 baserunners and 12 earned runs.

Dickey last started against the Jays back in 2004. He took the loss in that game, giving up five runs (4 earned) and 10 baserunners in six innings. On the other hand, Halladay tossed a complete game 3-hit shutout the last time (7/22/07) that he started against the Mariners. The Jays won that game by a score of 8-0. Looking back further and we find that the Jays are 5-2 the seven times that Halladay started against Seattle. Halladay went a minimum of six innings in all seven of those games, averaging better than seven. He also had an excellent 2.49 ERA.  Note that the Jays did get to see a bit of Dickey a few weeks ago, as he pitched a couple of innings out of the bullpen against them on June 9. Even if it's only one at bat, it's always helpful to have seen a pitcher in the not too distant past, particularly if that pitcher is a knuckleballer. The Jays have fared well as road favorites in this range. In fact, they're 5-1 the last six times they were listed as road favorites in the -125 to -150 range. Behind a big game from their ace and in front of what should be quite a few Toronto fans (Seattle is close to the Canadian border and many Jays fans from Vancouver make the trip to Safeco) look for the Jays to continue their improved play under Gaston, grabbing Game 1 in convincing fashion.