Ben Burns Available Picks

August, 07 2008 10:10pm EST
MONEYLINE: Seattle Mariners -126
WIN for +2.38 unit(s)

Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners

I'm playing on SEATTLE. The Rays have been quite the story as they remain on top of the AL East and continue to win and win when playing at home. With another exciting comeback victory yesterday, they're now an extremely impressive 45-17 at home. They haven't had nearly the same magic away from home though, as their road record of 23-28 certainly isn't much to write home about. Facing the Mariners' ace, I expect the Rays to be at a disadvantage and for their road woes to continue for another day.

While many of the Mariners' other pitchers have struggled Felix Hernandez continues to pitch very well. In fact, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 straight starts now. Despite their overall struggles, the Mariners have managed to go a healthy 7-3 in those games. Looking back further and we find them at 12-8 the last 20 times that Hernandez started at home. For the season, he has a very solid 3.48 ERA at home (3.04 overall) averaging just slightly more than a strikeout per inning, while lasting an average of 6 1/2 innings per start.  

Hernandez didn't get any run support last time out, as Baltimore's Jeremy Guthrie pitched an absolute gem. That's not likely to happen again tonight though. Not with Andy Sonnanstine on the mound for the visitors. Sonnanstine gave up five runs (at KC) in his last road start, suffering a 6-1 loss. Including that result, he has a poor 4.71 ERA in his 10 road starts. He faced the Mariners once already this season, at Tampa back on 4/9, and lost that game by a score of 7-1, giving up nine baserunners and four runs in six innings.

Hernandez hasn't faced the Rays yet this season, which should work to his advantage. He did face them once last season though and he was dominant in that game, allowing just one run through 7 2/3 innings, en route to a 2-1 Seattle victory. Note that he had 8 K's to just one walk. In fact, the Mariners are a perfect 3-0 in Hernandez's three career home starts vs. the Rays, winning those games by a combined score of 15-3! Hernandez went a minimum of 7 2/3 innings in ALL three of those games and didn't allow more than one run in any of them, recording an outstanding 1.16 ERA in those games. The Mariners took two of three games at Tampa back in the spring and are 13-7 the last 20 series meetings overall. They're also 9-3 the last dozen times that the teams met here in the Pacific Northwest. They played here yesterday afternoon while the Rays had to make the long trip across the country. Look for it to all add up to another Seattle victory. *Personal Favorite