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July, 18 2008 10:10pm EST
MONEYLINE: Seattle Mariners -133
WIN for +2.26 unit(s)

Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners

I'm laying the price with SEATTLE. The timing of the All Star break wasn't particularly good for Cleveland. That's because the Indians had finally started to gain some momentum, having just swept Tampa Bay in a 4-game series. The extended break can often take the wind out of the sails of a team that had entered the break playing well though. Facing Felix Hernandez, I expect that to be the case for the Indians tonight.

Hernandez enters the game with a stellar 2.95 ERA and 1.239 WHIP. He's averaged 6 2/3 innings per start and has an impressive 101 K's to just 39 walks. It's true that he was recently on the disabled list. However, he's already gotten his 'first start back from the DL' out of the way and was quoted as saying: "I was going crazy on the DL. I feel pumped. My mechanics were there. I could have thrown 40 more pitches." Prior to going on the DL, Hernandez had gone 4-0 with an outstanding 1.09 ERA in his previous five starts.

Laffey also has solid overall numbers. However, his success has come at home. Away from Cleveland, he has really struggled. In fact, he's 0-2 in five road starts (Indians are 1-4!) with an ugly 5.56 ERA and 1.618 WHIP. In his most recent road outing, he lasted just five innings, allowing five hits, four walks and four runs en route to a 9-6 loss at Minnesota. Laffey's not the only one on his team who has struggled on the road. Indeed, the Indians are a horrible 15-31 away from Cleveland, costing their backers more than 17 betting units vs. the moneyline. That includes a 4-14 mark as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 21-39 their last 60 in that role.

Conversely, during the same stretch, the Mariners are a healthy 34-17 (+11.1) when listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. It's also worth noting that they've gone 5-2 their last seven games against left-handed starters, including victories against the likes of Perez, Rogers and even Johan Santana. Behind a big effort from their young pitching start, look for the Mariners to grab Game 1. *Personal Favorite

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