Ben Burns Available Picks

August, 07 2008 1:05pm EST
MONEYLINE: Philadelphia Phillies -214
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Florida Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies

I'm laying the price with PHILADELPHIA. This is a more expensive neighborhood than I normally venture into. However, given the pitching matchup and the fact that I believe the Phillies are a far superior overall team, I believe that the price is more than justified and that the value actually lies with the favorite. In fact, there are a couple of favorites of this size (Rockies) or bigger (Mets) but I feel this is by far the biggest mismatch. The Phillies bounced back from a loss in the series opener with a convincing 5-0 victory yesterday. They know the importance of this series and know that a win in this afternoon's series finale is imperative to put some distance between themselves and the pesky Marlins.

Hamels goes for the Phillies and despite a loss in his last game, I still believe that he's one of the best left-handers in baseball. For the season, he has an outstanding 3.08 ERA at home to go along with a stellar 1.048 WHIP. The reason that today's price isn't even higher is that Hamels hasn't earned a victory in a while. Note that he's still allowed four earned runs or less in 11 straight starts, allowing two or less in seven of those. He'll be highly motivated to get back on track and what better way to do so than against a Florida team which hits just .240 against southpaws. Despite beating Moyer for the first time ever in the opener, the Marlins are still just 4-6 against left-handers for the season and they have a losing record against them overall. Looking back further and we find the Fish at just 57-72 against southpaws the past three seasons.

Facing youngster Chris Volstad, I expect the Phillies to provide Hamels with some solid run support this afternoon. Volstad has performed quite well in limited starts for the Marlins thus far. The magic is starting to wear off though, as he lasted only five innings last time out though, allowing 11 baserunners and five runs (four earned), en route to suffering a 5-2 loss. He's now 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA and ugly 1.647 WHIP his last three starts. Keep in mind that he began the season at double AA-Carolina and that he has never even pitched in Triple-AAA. He spent the majority of last season, pitching at single A-Jupiter where he was just 8-9 with a 4.50 ERA. In other words, unlike Hamels who has proven that he can consistently dominate at this level, Volstad doesn't have much big game experience and this is arguably the biggest game of his career. Look for the pressure to get to him here as Hamels bounces back with a dominant effort and the Phillies extend their lead atop the NL East. *Getaway Day GOW