Ben Burns Available Picks

May, 11 2008 2:05pm EST
MONEYLINE: Milwaukee Brewers -123
WIN for +2.44 unit(s)

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

I'm laying the price with MILWAUKEE. I don't have to look at the 'consensus sites' to predict that the majority of the betting public will be backing St. Louis this afternoon. After all, what's not to like? The Cards won yesterday. They've got the better record and their starting pitcher brings the better stats into today's game. I tend to see things rather differently than the majority though and I believe that one has to 'dig a little deeper' in order to get a true picture of things. Let's take a closer look. Yes, Looper has the better overall record. However, he hasn't been as good on the road as he has been at home and the Cards are just 5-8 his last 13 road starts, dating back to last season. It should also be noted that the Cards lost Looper's two starts here at Milwaukee by a combined score of 21-3 with Looper giving up 12 earned runs in 10 innings for a 10.80 ERA. Additionally, as I've repeatedly pointed out, most recently when I successfully played against the Brewers on 4/30, Suppan is great at home but stinks on the road. He lost that 4/30 game by a score of 19-5 and has a 7.36 ERA in five road starts overall. On the other hand, he's got a stellar 1.29 ERA in his two home starts. While that's a pretty small sample size, that's been the pattern for Suppan for several years now. Last season, he was 9-3 with a 3.87 ERA at home but 3-9 with a 5.38 ERA on the road. In 2006, he was 5-5 with a 5.36 ERA on the road but 7-2 with a stellar 3.18 ERA at home. Clearly, this man likes his home cooking. Not surprisingly, the Brewers are 8-12 in Suppan's last 20 road starts but 14-6 his last 20 at home. It should also be noted that Suppan has been significantly better during the day than he has been underneath the lights. Like Suppan, the entire Milwaukee team plays better at home. Even with a loss yesterday, the Brewers are still a healthy 107-70 here since 2006. They're also still 8-6 the last 14 times they were a host in this series and a solid 10-5 in their afternoon games this season. Suppan's teams are a perfect 5-0 his last five starts against the Cardinals. Suppan has allowed three earned runs or less in ALL five of those starts while recording a miniscule 1.69 ERA. That includes a 7-1 win and a 9-1 win (vs. Looper), both here at Milwaukee last season, in his most recent two starts in the series. Another 'blowout' win for the Brewers won't come as a surprise. *NL Blowout GOW