Ben Burns Available Picks

July, 18 2008 10:05pm EST
MONEYLINE: Los Angeles Angels -148
WIN for +2.03 unit(s)

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels

I'm laying the price with the LA ANGELS. The Red Sox are still the defending champions. However, it's the Angels who return from the break with the best record in the American League (tied with Cubs for best in baseball) and who have the biggest lead of any division leader. While the Angels did win two of three at Fenway back in April, they haven't forgotten the fact that the Red Sox swept them in last year's playoffs. They'll still have payback on their minds and I expect them to have several advantages for tonight's series opener.

For starters, the Red Sox are still without David Ortiz. While Drew, Ramirez and co. have picked up the slack, the Red Sox still miss the bat of their big slugger. Well known for his game-winning and late inning home runs, Ortiz has been severely missed in close games, particularly on the road. For the season, Boston is just 21-29 on the road, costing backers 10+ betting units vs. the moneyline. While the Red Sox have the better offensive numbers overall, they're averaging only 4.4 runs on the road, hitting .269. That's almost identical to the Angels' .267 average and 4.3 runs per game, here at home.

It's in the pitching department where the Angels should enjoy a significant advantage. Clay Buchholz goes for the Red Sox and he's just 2-4 in nine starts (Sox are 2-7!) with an ugly 5.70 ERA and 1.669 WHIP. Buchholz has been particularly brutal on the road, too. In five road starts, he's gone 0-3 (Sox are 0-5!) with a terrible 8.64 ERA and 1.84 WHIP, averaging just five innings per outing. Last time out, in his first big league start in two months, (was on DL and in minors) Buchholz allowed five hits, five walks and four runs, in just five innings. That gave him an awful 10.80 ERA and 2.551 WHIP his last three outings, all losses.

Buchholz will be opposed by John Lackey, an extremely competitive and competent right-hander. Despite a rare sub-par outing in his last start here, Lackey still has an excellent 2.50 ERA and 0.972 WHIP at home for the season. Overall, he's 6-2 with a 2.46 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in 11 starts. Not surprisingly, the Angels won eight of those games. Lackey typically goes fairly deep in games, too, as he's averaged 7 1/3 innings per start. That's worth noting as he's supported by a pair of excellent late-inning relievers. Scot Shields and Francisco Rodriguez have been among the best of the best when holding onto a lead. Indeed, Shields and Rodriguez have converted a combined 40 of 44 save opportunities. The Angels are 45-4 when holding the lead after seven innings. The Angels are also 40-5 when they score first and they're also 35-19 in games decided by two runs or less. All three of those records are the best in the league.

The Angels are a profitable 39-23 (+10.6) in July the past few seasons, including an 8-4 mark this season. They've also fared well vs. winning teams, going 27-17. Boston, on other hand, is just 21-22 when matched up against a team with a winning record. Look for Lackey to get the better of Buchholz as the Angels grab Game 1, extending their lead on the rest of the league. *Feast