Sign up to receive free picks!

July, 18 2008 7:10pm EST
TOTAL: Under 9 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins

I'm playing on Philadelphia and Florida to finish UNDER the total. The Marlins (50-45) were a profitable 'over' team in the first half. However, that was due to them playing high-scoring games against the league's weaker teams. When matched up against teams with a winning record, they saw the UNDER go a healthy 16-11-3. The Philles (52-44) also showed a tendency to play low-scoring games against winning teams in the first half, as the UNDER was a profitable 28-17-1 when they faced a team with a winning record. With Moyer matched up against Nolasco, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening.

Nolasco has been excellent for the Marlins, going 10-4 with a solid 3.70 ERA and 1.191 WHIP. He's been particularly sharp lately too, recording an outstanding 2.14 ERA and 0.667 WHIP his last three starts, averaging seven complete innings per outing. For the season, he's seen the UNDER go 5-1 in his six home starts. He's also pitched very well vs. the Phillies over his career. In four starts, he's gone 3-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.141 WHIP. Not surprisingly, three of those four games fell below the total.

Moyer gets the call for the visitors and he's always given the Marlins problems. In fact, he's made nine career starts vs. Florida and he's gone a perfect 9-0, recording a 3.03 ERA and 0.909 WHIP. In four road starts in this series, he has an exceptional 1.30 ERA. Most recently, in a game here last month, Moyer tossed eight shutout innings, allowing a mere two hits, en route to a 3-0 Phillies victory. The crafty veteran has shown no signs of slowing down this season. Last time out, he held the Cards to just one run through seven complete innings. He's been particularly sharp on the road, too. In nine road starts, he has a 3.13 ERA. Six of those nine games, including each of the last four, stayed below the number. Looking back to last September and we find that the UNDER is a profitable 10-3 his last 13 road starts. Look for those numbers to get even better this evening, as the final combined score falls beneath the number. *NL East Total of the Month

Ben Burns Past Picks

MLB Baseball

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Thursday August 28, 2008 1:05 pm
I'm playing on the NEW YORK YANKEES. The Yankees entered this series with an outside shot at rallying to make the playoffs. The last two days have really damaged their postseason chances though. If they ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals Wednesday August 27, 2008 8:15 pm
I'm playing on Milwaukee and St Louis to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener finished above the total. That was a tough loss for 'under' bettors though, as the score was 5-0 entering the ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals Wednesday August 27, 2008 8:10 pm
I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. After they've taken the first two games of this series, the majority of the betting public will likely ride the Rangers again today. After all, the Royals have been the least ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees Tuesday August 26, 2008 7:05 pm
I'm laying the price with the NEW YORK YANKEES. This matchup was originally supposed to be between Andy Pettite and Josh Beckett. However, Beckett will miss the series, the last of the year between these ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday August 26, 2008 7:05 pm
I'm playing on the Cubs and Pirates to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener resulted in a high-scoring contest but I expect to see a well-pitched affair this evening. Chicago starter Carlos ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres Monday August 25, 2008 10:05 pm
I'm playing on San Diego and Arizona to finish UNDER the number. I don't normally go 'under' when a total is only 6.5. However, this isn't a 'normal' pitching matchup and it's not at a 'normal' park. ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals Monday August 25, 2008 8:10 pm
I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. After falling behind 3-0 early, the Royals rallied for a 7-3 victory yesterday. Off that momentum-building win now they hand the ball to Gil Meche, who has been their best ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Cincinnati Reds @ Colorado Rockies Sunday August 24, 2008 3:05 pm
I'm playing on the Rockies and Reds to finish UNDER the number. While the first two games of this series have both been of the high-scoring variety, I expect to see a pitcher's duel for this afternoon's ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Tampa Bay Rays @ Chicago White Sox Sunday August 24, 2008 2:05 pm
I'm laying the price with CHICAGO. The Rays have managed to win the first two games of this series but recording the sweep in this afternoon's finale is NOT going to be easy. For starters, the Rays haven't ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

MLB Baseball

Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels Saturday August 23, 2008 9:05 pm
I'm laying the price with the LA ANGELS. After dropping the series opener by a score of 2-1 and then getting embarrassed 9-0 yesterday, the Angels now have something to prove. That should spell trouble ... read more

Ben Burns Bio and Picks | Articles By Ben Burns

More recent MLB past picks...