Ben Burns Available Picks

June, 30 2008 9:05pm EST
TOTAL: Over 9.5 (-120)
WIN for +2.5 unit(s)

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

I'm playing on Colorado and San Diego to finish OVER the total. These teams played a trio of low-scoring games when they faced each other back near the beginning of May. Those games occurred at pitcher-friendly Petco Park though. Prior to yesterday's 11-run outburst, games were averaging just 7.6 combined runs there for the season. Even with yesterday's game finishing above the total, the 'under' is still a healthy 28-18-1 at Petco on the season. However, this evening's game is being played at Coor's Field, which is a whole different matter entirely. Note that the OVER is 19-16-1 in San Diego road games this season, improving to a profitable 102-87-12 the past few seasons. That includes a 10-4 mark this season when the Padres played a road game in which they were listed in the +100 to +125 range.

It's true that games here don't average as many runs here as they did several years ago, when over/under lines regularly ranged from 12 to 14 for games at Coors. They still score a lot more runs here than they do in San Diego though! Roughly two runs per game more, as games here are averaging 9.4 runs per game this season. While technically not applicable, as this is the final day of June, I feel that it's worth mentioning that the OVER was 7-5 in games played here last July and that those games averaged exactly a dozen combined runs a piece. In other words, as the weather warmed up, so did the bats.

While I feel that the number is generously low, today's pitching matchup favors the OVER. Although he hasn't been getting victories, Maddux has mostly pitched well at Petco Park. At least he had been pitching well there. Last time out, however, he got pounded for six earned runs in just 5 2/3 innings. Once again though, tonight's game isn't being played at pitcher-friendly Petco. That's worth noting as, like his team, Maddux hasn't enjoyed much success on the road. At home, the future-hall-of famer has a 2.45 ERA and opponents are hitting .212. On the road, opponents are batting .314 and Maddux is 2-5 with a poor 4.75 ERA. Note that he hasn't been very good on the road for quite some time now. Last season, Maddux had a 4.65 ERA on the road and in 2006 he had an awful 5.20 ERA in 18 road starts. Not surprisingly, the OVER is 12-6-2 the last 20 times that Maddux pitched on the road, including a 4-1 mark his last five road starts.

While Madduz has 350 career wins, Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa has a career record of 17-27 with a terrible 5.90 ERA. This season, he has a 6.52 ERA as a starter, including a brutal 6.98 ERA in four home starts. What limited success he has enjoyed has come in the afternoon, as he is 1-4 with a 7.00 ERA underneath the lights. As De La Rosa has averaged less than five innings per start, it's worth noting that the Colorado bullpen hasn't been all that great here at home, recording a 4.33 ERA and 1.434 WHIP in 120+ innings here. Those numbers are actually really good compared to the extremely poor 5.05 ERA and 1.598 WHIP which the San Diego relievers have recorded on the road. In other words, some runs in the late innings won't be a surprise. Look for the final score to finish above the number as the teams combine for double-digits in runs and the OVER moves to 4-2 the last six series meetings played here. *TOM