Ben Burns Available Picks

May, 12 2008 4:05pm EST
TOTAL: Under 8.5 (-130)
WIN for +2.31 unit(s)

Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians

I'm playing on the Jays and Indians UNDER the total in Game 1 of this afternoon's double-header. The Jays have had trouble scoring runs lately, to say the least. They got shutout in their last game (12-0!) and they've managed just four runs in their last three games combined. Looking back further and we find that they've managed a mere 30 runs over their past dozen games, an average of only 2.5 runs per game. While they're probably due to "break out" sometime soon, I feel it's unlikely to happen this afternoon. Not against Fausto Carmona. One thing I picked up on about Carmona quite early last season, which served me well throughout the year, was that he was much better during the daytime. While the numbers evened out somewhat as the season progressed, Carmona still finished the year with an awesome 9-1 record and a miniscule 2.14 ERA in his 12 daytime starts. His nighttime stats (10-7 with a 3.64 ERA) were still respectable, but nowhere near as strong as his afternoon ones. Note that this will be Carmona's first daytime start this season. It's true that Carmona has been plagued by some control problems, as he does allow a high number of walks. All the same, he's still allowed one earned run or less in four of seven starts this season and he still has a stellar 2.28 ERA at home. Note that he's only allowed one home run on the entire season - and that came on the road. While it may be tempting for some to back Carmona and the Tribe, I'd rather not go against AJ Burnett and the Jays this afternoon. For starters, the Jays are going to be angry after the embarrassing 12-0 loss and they've gone a remarkable 10-1 the last 11 times they were coming off a shutout loss. They've also been terrific in the afternoon this season, while the Indians have struggled. Additionally, like Carmona, Burnett can be downright nastry. Rather than choose a side, I feel the UNDER is the way to go. Burnett beat Boston 3-0 in his last road start, allowing a mere three hits through 7 2/3 innings. That lowered his ERA to 3.04 on the road for the season, averaging nearly seven innings per start, with a solid 1.275 WHIP. Dating back to last April, the UNDER is now 10-5-1 in Burnett's last 16 road starts, including a 3-1 mark this season. Both teams have also shown a strong tendency to play low-scoring "day games" so far this season. The Jays have seen the UNDER go a profitable 7-2 when playing in the afternoon while the Indians have seen the UNDER go an even better 10-2 in theirs. Look for another well-pitched game this afternoon. *Annihilator