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May, 14 2008 7:10pm EST
MONEYLINE: Cincinnati Reds -136
WIN for +2.21 unit(s)

Florida Marlins at Cincinnati Reds

I'm laying the price with CINCINNATI. I've successfully backed the Reds in each of the first two games of this series and I expect them to make it three in a row this evening. The Reds lost shortstop Jeff Keppinger to injury yesterday. He'd been hitting well so the Reds are hoping he's not out for an extended period of time. His absence isn't likely to be felt significantly immediately though and, as in other sports, baseball teams often initially rally when one of their starters goes down. Additionally, assuming he's in the lineup this evening, the Reds are pretty high on shortstop Paul Janish, who was expected to be called up from Triple-A. Dusty Baker described him by saying: "He's a big-time slick fielder. He's got some sock on his bat, especially on the high fastball. He works hard. He has good speed." It's hard to know exactly what to make of today's starters. Both come in with poor stats on the season and both were rocked just two starts ago. However, both bounced back to pitch well last time out. Nolasco allowed four hits and one run through six innings, recording six strikeouts vs. two walks. Arroyo was a little better though, as he allowed an identical one run and four hits but lasted a full eight complete innings. He had nine K's vs. just two walks. Additionally, its important to note that Arroyo's performance came vs. a strong Mets club that ranks third in the National League in runs scored, while Nolasco's performance came against a Washington lineup which ranks third worst in the league in that category. Therefore, Arroyo's outing was arguably quite a lot more impressive. It's true that Arroyo will be pitching on shorter rest than normal. However, after his best performance in recent memory, he's probably happy to get back to the mound, sooner rather than later. Note that he's 1-0 with a 3.05 ERA in three career starts on short rest and also that he'll be supported by a Cincinnati bullpen which has been exceptional at home so far this season. After yesterday's victory, the Reds are now 6-0 the last six times they were a host in this series. Momentum is an important factor in baseball and the Reds have it in their favor. Look for them to continue that recent homefield series dominance, as the Marlins continue their fall back to earth. *NL Personal Favorite

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