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May, 16 2008 7:10pm EST
MONEYLINE: Cincinnati Reds -115
WIN for +2.61 unit(s)

Cleveland Indians at Cincinnati Reds

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I successfully played on the Reds in all three of their victories over the Marlins (yesterday's game was postponed) and I expect them to carry their positive momentum into this evening's "instate rivalry" vs. the Indians. I also expect them to have the edge on the mound. Yes, the Indians have made up for their surprisingly poor hitting by great starting pitching of late. Sowers hasn't been part of that though, as he's only made one start and he didn't get a decision, lasting only 5 1/3 innings while recording a 5.07 ERA and 1.501 WHIP. Sowers is surely happy to get another crack at the starting rotation. However, he can't be too pleased that his second start is coming against Cincinnati. Indeed, in three starts against the Reds, he's gone 0-2 with an awful 9.60 ERA and 1.6 WHIP. He's averaged just five innings in those three starts and he gave up two home runs in each of them. Cueto, on the other hand, will have the advantage of facing the Indians for the first time. The Reds' rookie got roughed up on the road (vs. the Mets) last time out. He's pitched well at home though, averaging nearly seven innings per start, going 2-1 while recording a solid 3.67 ERA with an excellent 0.963 WHIP. Cueto will be supported by a relief corps which has managed an excellent 2.97 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 60+ innings of work here at Cincinnati. Given their past history of success against Sowers and the fact that they scored 20 runs in three games against the Marlins, the Reds should also give Cueto some run support to work with. Since the 2006 season, the Indians are 19-28 (-6.8) when playing on the road with a line ranging from +100 to +125. During the same stretch, the Reds are 29-19 (+7.6) when playing at home with a line ranging from +100 to -125. Look for the Reds to build on those stats here, improving to 7-5 the last dozen times they were a host in this series. *Rivalry GOM

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