Ben Burns Available Picks

July, 02 2008 7:10pm EST
MONEYLINE: Atlanta Braves -137
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves

I'm laying the price with ATLANTA. The Braves are finally getting healthy and they're at home for this huge game. Its "huge" because they're already 1-6 against the Phillies on the season and can't afford to keep falling further behind them in the division race, particularly as they know that the Mets are also likely to be much better in the second half. Yesterday was a bit of a tough spot, as it marked the Braves first game back home from a trip to Canada and also the return of Chipper Jones (and center fielder Mark Kotsay) to the lineup. Sometimes the return of a star can have an uplifting effect on the entire team. However, it can also work the other way, as players often tend to 'letdown' a little, thinking that their star is back now and that he will now be carrying the load. More importantly, the Phillies ended up with an advantage on the mound, as Kendrick was much better than Atlanta's Morton. The Braves have that "first game" under their belts now though and tonight's pitching matchup is significantly in their favor.

Campillo is 3-2 with a stellar 2.54 ERA and 1.045 WHIP on the season. The Braves are 4-2 in his home starts, most recently a 4-2 win over Milwaukee. Campillo was extremely sharp in that game as he allowed just four baserunners and two runs through seven complete innings, recording six K's without issuing a walk. Manager Bobby Cox summed up Campillo's performance by saying: "He's been excellent every time out. He's legit." That's fairly high praise from a guy that has been around the likes of Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine while they were all in their prime.

On the other hand, Eaton has been struggling for the Phillies of late. In fact, he's 0-3 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.821 WHIP his last three starts. The Phillies lost those games by a combined score of 15-3! On the season, Eaton is 0-4 in nine road games (Phillies are 2-7) with a poor 4.92 ERA and 1.509 WHIP. Although he was relatively solid here last month, Eaton still has an ugly 5.94 ERA and 1.52 WHIP for his career vs. the Braves. As mentioned, this is a huge game for the Braves, who are still a highly impressive 28-15 at home for the year. Look for them to get to Eaton, who has a tendency to allow first-inning runs, providing Campillo with some solid run support, en route to evening up the series. *NL East GOM