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July, 19 2008 8:10pm EST
MONEYLINE: Arizona Diamondbacks -126
WIN for +2.38 unit(s)

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

I'm laying the price with ARIZONA. The Dodgers took yesterday's game in 11 innings. Despite being below .500, the teams are now tied in first place on top of the NL West. With Haren on the Hill, I expect the Diamondbacks to bounce back and reclaim the division lead.

Haren has a 1.29 ERA in his last six start and has allowed two runs or less in each of those outings. He's been simply outstanding in his home starts since coming over to the Diamondbacks. Indeed, in 10 starts here, he has gone 7-2 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.945 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .212 in those games and Haren has an impressive 58 K's to just 11 walks. Haren has made one start against the Dodgers in this park. In that game, which came back on 4/7, he allowed just one earned run through six complete innings (5 K's, 0 walks) en route to a 9-3 win for the Diamondbacks.

Billingsley has also pitched well for the Dodgers. However, he has lost both this season's starts vs. the Diamondbacks. In those two starts, Billingsley allowed 10 combined runs (9 earned) in just 8 1/3 innings. That's a 9.72 ERA! In his most recent start here, he lasted a mere 2 2/3 innings, allowing eight baserunners (5 hits, 3 walks) and five runs, en route to a 10-5 loss. It should also be noted that Billingsley has been much better at night than he has been during the day. When pitching during the afternoon, he has an excellent 2.16 ERA. However, when pitching during the evening, that number balloons up to 4.07. While he's allowed just one home run in 50 innings in the daytime, he's allowed seven home runs in 66 innings at night.

Despite yesterday's result, the Diamondbacks have been the much better team in divisional games. The Dodgers are 16-14 against teams from the West while Arizona has gone a healthy 21-11. The Diamondbacks, currently 47-49, haven't been three games below .500 since 2006. Behind another quality effort from Haren, look for them to avoid that distinction this evening. *NL Personal Favorite

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