Andre Gomes Available Picks

July, 19 2008 8:05pm EST
ATS: Minnesota Lynx +7 (-105)
WIN for +2.86 unit(s)

Minnesota Lynx at SA Silver Stars

In this game I'll take the dog against the best team in the league, San Antonio, this seems weird and dangerous, however I'm not saying that San Antonio will lose at home, where they are 11-1 this season, but simply the spread of -7 points gives us a good margin for Minny to be competitive and that's what I hope in here. This will be the 3rd game between these two teams this season and until now the home team has always won. However in the last game where SA won by 73-65, I remember the best player of the Lynx Augustus was injured and didn't play and still Minnesota just lost by 8 points. The main problem of SA continues to be the rebounds where in that game they were outrebounded by 43-29. SA has been playing very well lately and they are 8-1 in their last 9 games, but a winning streak doesn't mean that they have been blowing out their opponents. That's exactly the opposite, as in these eight wins, their biggest win was by 10 points and in their last game at Phoenix. At home, the team hasn't won by double digits in the last 7 games. The team finishes very well the games, that's the big truth. However San Antonio is just 1-8 ATS off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival over the last 2 seasons and that has to mean something. The team has 3 days off but curiously that hasn't been helping the team this season, as they have been appearing rusty when they have so many days off to rest, as they are 1-4 ATS in these type of conditions this season.

The team of Minnesota comes from a road win against Houston in a wild game where Houston was capable of finishing well the game, however the team is so young that they aren't afraid of any team and the fact that proves that is that they are 3-0 ATS after a loss in road games. The defense of the team hasn't been so effective lately, which curiously makes SA struggle, as they are 0-7 ATS in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.  The line has opened at 6,5 and the public money movement brought the line to 7 points. The public loves to bet on the best team of the league, which originated an excellent opportunity for us. I think SA will win outright, but Minny is a really competitive team, as they are 4-1 ATS when they are dogs by 5-7 points, even though they have lost outright most of these matches. I'll take the dog in here. Take Minnesota.