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July, 17 2008 7:35pm EST
ATS: New York Liberty -7 (100)
WIN for +3 unit(s)

Washington Mystics at New York Liberty

I have to say that right know taking favorites in the WNBA can be dangerous, as the dogs somehow are finding a way to cover lately, as the last 4 ballgames were all dog covers. Saying this, we must realize that this fact won't stop me from trying to find good spots for both sides. New York and Washington are coming for this game in a good mood, as both teams won their last game. Curiously those victories were against the same team: Connecticut. This fact helps us to analyze what both teams can do in tonight's game. Of course one difference for these two teams is the days they had to rest, Liberty had one day, while the Mystics had 3 days, but I can't consider this as a good advantage for Washington, as not only they are 1-5 SU & ATS when playing with 3 days to rest but also with so many days off a letdown is just in the next door.

Washington won at home by 69-64 against Connecticut in a game that they started the fourth quarter leading 59-46 and with 1 min to go the score was 63-62, the most relative factor in that game is that the Sun couldn't score beyond the line as they were a dreadful 3-22 3pts. Unfortunately for Washington this won't happen with New York because this team is red hot in the 3 point land. They defeated Connecticut on road, while shooting 10-25 3 pts. With that victory the Liberty broke a span, which they alternated losses with victories in the last 11 games, and nothing better that beat the 2 best teams in the East. In fact they have won their last 4 home games and after playing a game as an underdog this season they are  9-1 ATS. Curiously Washington while being dogs in a range [5-7 points] is 1-4 ATS. I expect a letdown for Washington, as the Liberty have the ability to score in any position and this hurts Washington's defense. In my research I've found an interesting trend: Road underdogs of [3.5 to 9.5 points] after 2 or more consecutive unders, a poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ ppg are a sizzling 18-56 since 1997. Take New York in here.

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