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July, 18 2008 7:05pm EST
TOTAL: Under 138 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Seattle Storm at Indiana Fever

The total for this game is extremely low, just 138 points (that's the number I'll use as reference, even though I've found better). However it doesn't scare me, having in account the teams and the circumstances of this match. We are talking about the best two defenses of the league. Seattle leads the league with 69.4 ppg allowed and Indiana with 70.3 ppg. With just this factor we see how we are talking about two teams capable of stopping the offenses of their opponents. Seattle comes to this game with a winning streak of 6 wins and in their last game they destroyed the Sparks, only allowing 52 points, a season low for LA, also making them committing 20 turnovers. Now they will start a road trip and let's not forget they 5-1 Under in their last 6 road games and as they had 5 days off, the team in this type of circumstances in 5-2 Under in this season. The team will be without their best player Lauren Jackson, who went to Australia to prepare the Olympic Games. Surely this will cause problems to the attack, as Lauren has been amazing in this sequence of wins.

Indiana on the other side lost at home against Atlanta, which was the most humiliating loss of the season for them. If you remember that game, I took the over, waiting for Atlanta to be competitive and as Indiana was coming from a win, they wouldn't be very focused in the defense. That happened and Indiana allowed 81 points to the worst team of the league, so naturally I expect today a bounce back of the team, especially on the defense. Also their best player Catchings will be out due to an injury and so these two teams will play today without their main reference in the offense. These two teams have faced each other already this season and Seattle won by 78-70, in a game which ended with 148 points, mainly thanks to the number of free throws at the end, as the teams actually struggled in the attack: Seattle shot 37.3% FG and Indiana 38.5% FG. I expect a really physical and ugly game, with both offenses struggling. I expect both teams to stay in the mid 60's mark, thanks to the strong defenses these teams have. Take the under in here.

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