Andre Gomes Available Picks

July, 19 2008 8:35pm EST
TOTAL: Under 149 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

LA Sparks at Houston Comets

After a nice 3-0 sweep (10-3 run) yesterday, we pushed back forward and the adjustments I've made brought us to the right direction hopefully.

Big rivalry game we have today in the WNBA with Houston facing at home the Sparks. These two teams aren't that far in the standings, as it was supposed. LA is 13-9 and Houston 10-12. I think the oddmakers are correct in the spread they have decided for this game, with Houston being a marginal favorite, however in the totals I think we have good value for this game. Both teams come to this game after high scoring games in their last ballgame. LA lost at Phoenix by 92-99 and Houston defeated Minnesota at home by 96-88. In that game against the Lynx, I took the under and I got totally burnt as both teams shot 49% FG and when that happens, there is nothing that can save the under. The weird was that the game began at 11AM local time, but let's move on.

These two teams aren't known for playing run and gun and probably today's game will be played with a tempo they are most used to play. That's good because this total of 149 is too high and the tendency is too get lower with the time. The reference we have for this game is the game played between these two teams played at LA, where the Sparks won by 82-74, but after overtime. The game was tied 69-69 at the end of regular time, in a game where both offenses struggled and the explanation is simple: these two teams dominate the league in rebound margin. Houston is 1st with +4.68 prg and LA is 2nd with +4.55 rpg, so it's very hard to have second chance points. Curiously Candace Parker had a monster game with 40 pts and 16 reb in that game, but it will be very tough for her to repeat such performance today, as the Comets will be more prepared for her today.

"We did a lot of things well," Comets coach Karleen Thompson said. "But we needed to play much better on Parker."

The Sparks lost their last four road games, as they weren't capable to defend as well as they can and the fact that they have suffered a season high of 99 points in their last game will make them be fired up in the defense today. The team of Houston is coming from four overs in a row, but once again this is the usual style of play of the team. Houston is 31-10 after scoring 70 points or more in 5 straight games in their franchise. Also Houston is 16-2 Under after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 5 or more since 1997. It's curious to see how this rivalry has a brutal number of games which end up being under, as 37 of the 46 games in this series have gone under the total since 1997 and 19 of 23 games in this series played in Houston have also gone under the total since 1997. So, the under is clearly a value bet for today. Take the under in here.