Andre Gomes Available Picks

July, 01 2008 7:05pm EST
TOTAL: Under 151 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Houston Comets at Connecticut Sun

Houston comes to this game billed as the hottest team in the moment right now and why not? They have won four games in a row and all of them being underdogs. Today they played at Connecticut being a 9,5 points dog? This makes no sense at all. I love the spot for Houston tonight, however in my research I found out that the under has a tremendous value in this game. Houston has been doing a brilliant work in the defense, which has allowed them to fight for the games and eventually win them. The Comets coach says it all:

"Our motto is 'If we can't score, they can't either,' " Comets coach Karleen Thompson said.

The truth is that Houston has just allowed 65 points against Minny, 71 in both games to SA (one of them went to overtime) and 61 points in their last game against Indiana. The most impressive in that last game was that Houston obligated Indiana to commit 25 TO! And in fact, Houston is 11-1 Under after a game forcing opponents to commit 24 or more turnovers since 1997.

On the other side, Connecticut comes to this game without much confidence, after all they lost two of their last three games and their lonely win was a overtime ballgame at home against Atlanta. Today's game has a line of 151 points, which is too high in my opinion. The Sun come from two high scoring games, but they were against Atlanta and Phoenix, two runs and gun teams of this league. In their last game against the Mercury, they have made 19 assists and just 5 turnovers, something impossible to be repeated today due to the aggressive defense of Houston. The Comets are 88-28 Under in a road game where where the total is greater than or equal to 140 since 1997. Connecticut has been struggling this season in games against teams with aggressive defenses, not being capable to reach 70 points in games against Detroit, Seattle and Indiana.

In fact, Connecticut is 8-0 Under after scoring 80 points or more this season and 6-0 Under after a combined score of 165 points or more this season. For this game I expect an ugly game, which will be very hard for Connecticut to play their usual offensive basketball, due to a very aggressive defense of the Comets. I also expect the offense of the Comets not being at their normal level, as the team was capable to play well offensively in their previous game, but without their leader Thompson, the team will struggle to perform well offensively in a consistent way. Take the under in here.