Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 11 2008 3:30pm EST
TOTAL: Under 211 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz

Utah after having defeated the Lakers last Friday has now a good chance to tie the series and put some pressure on the Lakers shoulders. Curiously Vegas and the public think the Lakers will bounce back today, not only the line opened lower than in the Game 3 (-3,5), as right now the line is already at -1,5. Anyway I'll approach the total of this game. In fact all the scenario for this game make me believe that we are in presence of a game where both offenses may struggle. First of all, I'll talk a little bit about the Game 3, where Utah won by 104-99. And there is an evident factor in this series. In the 7 games Utah faced the Lakers this season, they have just won twice and it was in the two games where the Lakers scored less than 100 points. Everytime the Lakers scored more than 100 points, Utah lost. So, this makes obvious the need of Utah to be stronger in the defense, in order to raise their chances to win the series. In the Game even though we had "just" 203 points scored, we weren't in presence of a bad offensive game in terms of shooting percentages. Actually Utah shot 39-78 (50%) FG and the Lakers shot 32-66 (48.5%) FG. Simply it happened what I predicted in my analysis in the Game 3 where I took Utah (-4). The Lakers had less FT attempts than in the games at home (37 vs 46 and 43 in the first two games). Kobe, Deron and Boozer had all three good performances, which shows how well was the Game 3 played in the attack. However the fact that this game will be played on Sunday and early in the day (1:30PM local time) makes the scenario to not be good for the offenses of both teams. First of all Utah will play their first home game on a Sunday since 2001! That was seven years ago! Actually since 1991 the team played just 21 home games on a Sunday and the under dominated in those games (15-6). Early time in a game played on a place with some altitude doesn't help anyone. On the other side the Lakers are 0-4-1 O/U on road games on Sunday this season and 0-3 O/U if the games are played in the afternoon. In my technical research, I've also found another strong trend: Sloan is 16-2 Under in the 4th game of a playoff series as the coach of Utah! Also Sloan is 22-10 Under when trailing in a playoff series as the coach of Utah. We are being helped by an high line in this game, as 211 points gives us some security. Utah knows how they should play in order to beat the Lakers. "If we're active defensively, and we're rebounding the ball, getting in the passing lanes, causing some deflections, making them a little bit more uncomfortable," Boozer said the morning after a 27-point, 20-rebound night, "then we have a good shot." "I think if we play that kind of defense, we could play against anybody," Boozer said. "Regardless of the offensive side of the ball, if we play active defense, and we're aggressive and getting steals, that creates some offense for us and fastbreak points." The Lakers are yet to have a bad offensive game in this series and Kobe has always been at a very high level until now. If there is a game where we have the chance to watch an ugly game in this series, it's this one. That's why I'm taking the under in here.