Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 09 2008 9:00pm EST
ATS: Utah Jazz -4 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz

Utah lost the two games at LA and they couldn't even cover the spread in these two defeats and today they will play at home in a must win situation for them. We already know that nobody has been able to win a series after trailing by 0-3, so a loss today and it's over. It's curious to say that the team last season was in this situation twice in the series against Houston and against the Spurs in the conference final. In both matches Utah won by a big margin the Game 3. 81-67 vs Houston, while being a -4,5 favorite and 109-83 vs Spurs while being -2 favorite. So this situation isn't totally new for the team, especially as this season's roster is basically the same of last year. In the two games at LA there is the coincidence that Utah reached halftime losing big, by 13 pts in the Game 1 and 14 pts in the Game 2. And even though this, they were capable to make a reasonable comeback just to fell short at the end in both games. The truth is that Utah was only down by 4pts in the Game 1 and 5pts in the Game 2, during the second half of the game. It's a little bit weird to see Utah dominating the boards to easily and not being able to be more competitive than they were, it's almost ridiculous to see that Utah shots more FG than the Lakers in the two games at LA and they still lost both games by double digits points. And the key of that was in the free throws, as the Lakers had 46 FT in the Game 1 and 43 FT in the Game 2! Amazing! With Utah now playing at home, I believe they will be more soft for the home team, there will be the pressure of the crowd and believe me, the crowd of Utah is one of the loudest in the league. Also Jerry Sloan has already begun putting pressure on the referees about this subject: "We scored more points at the basket than they did," Sloan said. "You figure that out. Anytime we score baskets, we score inside, we usually shoot more free throws, for the most part, but we're shooting a lot less. "But I guess it's because we're a big physical team. They assume that we're going to foul before we start." The X factor of this game will have to be Boozer, who has been in a slump lately. He was the main reason why Utah lost the Game 2, as he didn't score a single point in the first half of the game. Actually he only played for 6:50min in the first half due to foul trouble, as he committed three fouls quite early and I remember I made the second once and left the field in the first quarter when the team was down by 13-17, just to suffer a 5-16 run until the end of the first quarter. And Boozer has conscience of that: After Game 2, Boozer said his back is not the problem - "I had a helluva season with my back," he said. He also said he needed to adjust his approach because of the way the referees were calling the games: "I've been letting my teammates down by getting in foul trouble." So I expect a big effort by him tonight, because the team really needs him to be a factor in this series. All the team of Utah knows how important this game will be for the rest of the series and they are focused in getting the win today. And don't forget that they are very strong at home, ending the regular season with a home record of 37-4. However they need to do a better ball movement, especially during the whole game, although Utah had 27 assists and 10 turnovers in the Game 2. "That's two games in a row where we've come out very soft on both ends of the floor, and that's where you're going to get yourself in trouble," he said. "We end up taking tough, bad shots where there's nobody there to rebound. They come out of there, and they get in the open court and they'll beat you with fast break-basketball." "Why run a play if we're going to go one-on-one? I'll isolate you and let you play one-on-one all day," Sloan added. "That didn't happen to just one guy. That happened (multiple) times. We're not a one-on-one team. ... That's why we have to play as a team, because we can't do it by ourself." And if there is a game where Utah will have to win, it's this one. The Lakers are unbeatable in this playoffs until now, but the difference between them and Utah is smaller than the results of the games at LA may say. Take Utah in here.