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May, 11 2008 8:00pm EST
ATS: San Antonio Spurs -6 (-110)
WIN for +3.64 unit(s)

New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio was finally able three days ago to win a game in this series against the Hornets and now the series is 2-1 in favor of New Orleans. In the Game 3 if you remember I took the under on a best bet and I was completely tricked by Popovich's strategy and I give him merit for that, as the team won the game and that was the most important for them. Popovich's strategy was realizing that the best defense is the attack and the Spurs clearly forced in the attack with penetrations from Parker and Ginobili. The main question now is to find out how both teams will play today. I know the Hornets will be today one of the main targets of the public, after all we all saw yesterday Detroit taking care of Orlando, while being the underdog by 5 points. Also there are a lot of similarities between this game and the Game 4 between the Hornets and Dallas, where New Orleans won on the road being the underdog by also 5 points. So what made me think that the same result won't happen in here? First of all, Popovich changed completely the matchups in the defense and even in the offense he made some changes. In the attack, Pop put Manu Ginobili into the starting lineup - was made to boost the Spurs' offense. The other moving top stopper Bruce Bowen from Paul to Peja Stojakovic was made to buttress the Spurs' defense, which allowed an average of 101.5 points in the first two games. And in the defense adjustments was aimed at limiting the damage of Paul's supporting cast, and it worked. After pumping in 47 points in the first two games, Stojakovic managed just eight in Game 3. Basically, Bowen stop defending Paul to go to defend Peja, who shot terribly in the Game 3 for obvious reasons. Bowen took Stojakovic, and helped harass him into a 2-for-7 night. One game after making all five of his field goals and scoring 12 points, Peterson hit just one shot in Game 3. It seems weird the Hornets lost by 11 points and at the same time, their superstars made a monster game. Paul ended with 15-25 FG and 35 points, while West shot 10-19 FG for 23 points and Chandler 5-5 FG for 12 points. So, if we look to the Game 3 of the series between Dallas and the Hornets, Paul shot in that game 4-18 and West 6-20 FG, with the Hornets shooting just 33-87 (37.9%) FG. The bounce back of the Game 4 was evident and happened. And today? Can these three players do better than they did in the Game 3, where they shpt 30-49 (61%) FG and scored 70 from the 99 points of the team? The team shot 49.4% FG at San Antonio and they have to perform even better? Just in the defense, but I think Popovich will innovate again today. The strategy of Popovich was to use Parker, just like the Hornets use Paul: lots of attacks and penetrations into the basket. The result was Parker to end the Game 3 with 12-24 FG for 31 points and Ginobili with 11-22 FG for also 31 points. But there was one player that underperformed a little bit in that game and he will be the X factor of today's game. I'm obviously talking about Tim Duncan. He shot 6-13 FG, in a 16 points and 13 boards performance, but he wasn't a valid option in the attack, not only in the Game 3 but in the whole series. So for this fact, there are two major factors. First of all, he has spent most of the past week battling high fever and flu-like symptoms and also the Hornets decided to double team him everytime he had the ball. But Byron Scott may change something in here, as he saw Parker and Ginobili shooting 46 FG and scoring 56% of the points of the team, Byron Scott may try to stop that and if he takes this decision, this will give space to Duncan. The Hornets could have won the Game 3, as all their superstars played extremely well. For today I think they will struggle, as Popovich will win the tactical battle once again. Take the Spurs in here. DOUBLE DIME PLAY.