Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 27 2008 9:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 192 (-110)
LOSS for -4 unit(s)

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs

Game 4 of this series and the Lakers lead the series by 2-1, however the Spurs have won their first battle at home, by blowing out the Lakers in style by 103-84, confirming that they are a team with character, even when the situations aren't the best for them. I remember that they were up by 20 points in the Game 1 and lost it, while shooting 40.5% FG. In the Game 2 they were slaughtered by 30 points (71-101), while shooting a ridiculous 34.5% FG. Manu Ginobili was injured, but still the game improved a lot at home in the Game 3, especially in the attack, as after scoring 84 and 71 points at LA, they scored 103 points at home in the Game 3. The main reason for that was the change they implemented on their game in the Game 3. The Spurs' switch to a more freewheeling style befuddled the Lakers. Instead of settling into their familiar plodding halfcourt offense, the Spurs got a little wild and crazy when they had the ball. They even pushed the ball downcourt on occasion. And Kobe has already acknowledged that: "Obviously, they wanted to add some more speed to their offense and more motion," Bryant said. "They wanted their offense to be a little more dynamic than it was at Staples Center. ... They put us on our heels and we weren't able to match their speed." Something that's a fact in this playoffs is that it doesn't matter what the Spurs did in the previous game, as when they play at home, their offenses simply gains a new life. In the seven home games in the playoffs these were the number of the Spurs: vs Phoenix 50.5%, 48.2% and 39% FG; vs Hornets 48.2% FG, 51.3% and 49% FG; vs Lakers in the Game 3, the Spurs shot 51.4% FG. So it will be a certainty that the Spurs today will again try to play with the same dynamic in the attack that they have showed in their previous home games in the post season. But now the main question is to know what the Lakers will be capable to do in order to stop that. The Lakers are the team with the best attack in this playoffs and they have showed during the regular season that they are a potent power offensive team and the key for them to beat the Spurs is also to be aggressive in the attack and not try to stop them in an half court defense. The team in the Game 3 wasn't aggressive and so, the X factor in the Game 3 was the frontcourt. Odom and Gasol were terrible together, shooting 9-29 FG and Odom had one of his worst performances ever, with five turnovers, missed nine of 11 shots and made only three of eight free throws. He took the blame for the loss after the game, and was still unhappy about it Monday morning. Gasol and Odom missed 20 of 29 shots, many from close range, and were privately singled out by Coach Phil Jackson for not being aggressive enough. The key for today is them to be more aggressive and Phil Jackson has already referred that: "Dunk the basketball," he said. "Attack the rim a little harder. Finish at the free-throw line." Jackson spoke to Gasol and Odom after the game. He thought they needed to attack the basket with more ferocity. A follow-up conversation apparently wasn't needed Monday. And today I expect it from the Lakers and even from Kobe Bryant, who even with 30 points, just went to the free throw line once and already in the last quarter of the game. Also don't forget the Lakers are 8-0 over in road games revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It's curious to see that the three games until now played in this series ended up being under, but today the scenario for this game is the one of the series until now which more favors a lot of points to be scored. The Spurs excel in their tempo and the bounce back of the Lakers in this game will have to come from being more aggressive in the attack, so I expect a game to finish close to the 200 points. Take the over in here. DOUBLE DIME PICK.