Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 10 2008 5:00pm EST
TOTAL: Under 187 (-110)
WIN for +2.73 unit(s)

Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic

Orlando won the Game 3 and right now the series is 2-1 for Detroit and if you remember I took Orlando in that game, even though the conditions are favorable for Orlando again today, I won't go again on Orlando, as I expect a kind of bounce back from Detroit, so in this scenario I consider the under a best bet in this game and I'll explain why: In the Game 3 besides getting spanked by 111-86 (25 points of difference), the most important fact is that Billups left the game early and with that Detroit lost their natural identity. I'm not saying Detroit will win today, I'm just saying that Detroit was lost during the game and lost their usual routine. Looking at the numbers of that the most revealing fact of that was that Detroit ended the game with 20 points originated by fast break points and we all know Detroit likes to play post season games on a very slow pace. Billups is day to day for this game, but if he doesn't play, Detroit will be now better prepared to play without him than in the Game 3. I remember that Billups got injured with 8:11 to go in the 1st quarter and Detroit was down by 2-6. Orlando managed to do an almost perfect offensive game. They shot 42-78 53.8% FG and they improved their 3pts shooting, with a 11-24 performance. The big star of the game was Lewis who shot 11-15 5-6 3pts, ending the game with 33 points. But Detroit won't allow that to happen again, actually I've found out in my research that Saunders is thinking about changing the rotations to avoid that to happen again. To contain Lewis, Saunders said he could turn sooner to Walter Herrmann, an undersized power forward with a strong defensive track record, or even to forward Amir Johnson, who hasn't been a rotation member in these playoffs. Johnson could help because he's adept at recovering to block shots after someone gets by him. They will try to win today with this tactic, as they won't stand a chance to play at the rhythm of Orlando, so they need to play on their own pace. With Detroit being one of the best teams in the league in defending 3pts shots, I expect the Pistons to be more careful with this too. Orlando performed well in the previous game, but they clearly struggle to perform so well in a consistent way. Rare are the games where Detroit allows more than 110 pts, especially on a playoff game, and in my technical research I've found some curious trends that explain the behavior in this scenario: Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (DETROIT) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (35-14 over the last 5 seasons.) Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (DETROIT) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. (43-17 over the last 5 seasons.) But looking at the performances of Detroit, there is a trend which explains well what to expect from Detroit after allowed so many points. DETROIT is 26-13 UNDER (+11.7 Units) after one or more consecutive overs this season. Also it's curious to see Orlando fitting in this scenario: ORLANDO is 21-5 UNDER (+15.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. This game will be more physical than the Game 3, as Detroit will be more aggressive during the whole 48 minutes of the game. The absence or not of Billups, personally I think he will play, but anyway Detroit will be more prepared today to play without him. But I clearly expect this game to be ugly and where the shooting percentages won't be high, so take the under in here.