Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 07 2008 8:00pm EST
ATS: Orlando Magic -3.5 (-110)
WIN for +3.64 unit(s)

Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic

Detroit has won both home games against Orlando and now they lead the series by 2-0. It's also important to say that as Detroit has swept the Magic last season that the Pistons are now 6-0 against Orlando in the post season of the last two seasons. However Orlando has a different team this season and with more potential and we saw that in the Game 2, where if you remember I took Detroit and we were lucky at the end, as Detroit covered the spread in the last seconds of the game. The series is now heading to Orlando and as we have seen in this playoffs the momentum changes quickly and the home factor can be decisive to change a series, like it happened in the series between Boston and Atlanta. The Pistons are a good example how it's hard to play on the road in the post season, no matter the team is, especially the first game on the road of the series, the mythical Game 3. The Pistons had lost six out of seven of them until winning two in a row last post season (at Orlando and at Chicago). Then came Game 3 in Cleveland, a loss that turned the entire series around. Don't think the Magic, in a similar 0-2 hole, aren't using that as motivation. The Pistons are a rather pedestrian 6-9 in Game 3s dating to their 2004 championship run.

Now looking to what happened in the Game 2, I have to comment what happened at the end of the 3rd quarter. With the 3pts shot of Billups being counted even while being made out of time, this incident will motivate Orlando in this game for sure. Not only the Magic players will be fired up, as there will be an enormous pressure over the referees.

"They made the call. They had the clock stopped, so they had to estimate how much time, and they estimated 4.6 seconds, that's almost funny," Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. "(I asked), 'How long did that play take?' (Officials said) 'Oh, 4.3, 4.6 (seconds).' "What can you do? They were put in a very tough situation on that call. It didn't go our way."

I don't like to make judgments, but in situations of doubt it seems obvious that the referees will end up favoring Orlando tonight. Now talking about the game itself, Orlando shot 7-7 3pts in the third quarter, which is amazing. At the same time Howard had in the second half 12 pts and 13 boards, which isn't just a coincidence. In fact the team played better than Detroit in the second half and they will bring this momentum to Orlando. It's also important to refer that the Magic committed 19 TO in the last game, with 17 of them being committed by their big three (Howard 5TO, Lewis 6 TO, Hedo 6 TO). Now playing at home it will normal that these three players will bounce back today by committing less turnovers. This factor not only caused problems to the offensive game of the team, but they have also originate 22 points off turnovers for Detroit.

Orlando has today their best chance to win a playoff game against Detroit in the last two seasons, as their scoring touch in 3pts shots was better in the Game 2 and today it will be even better. Remember that Orlando shot 36.8% 3pts on the road, but shot 39.5% 3pts at home. Besides that they will come to the game more aggressive than in the previous games of the series and the refs may help them in that way too. Take Orlando in here. BEST BET.