Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 13 2008 9:30pm EST
MONEYLINE: San Antonio Spurs +147
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets

For this game I'll accept the risk of taking a team playing on the road right now. It seems to be dangerous, after all in 16 games already played in the conferences semi finals, only one team playing on the road won and covered the spread. The only exception was Detroit last Saturday at Orlando. I also take the challenge of going against a team which in the last three home games against the Spurs have slaughtered them by 100-75, 101-82 and 102-84. As I also accept the challenge of going against a team who has this trend this season: NEW ORLEANS is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. And obviously I'm going to tell you why. When a coach makes some changes and adjustments that can change a series and even a championship and that has happened with Popovich during this series in the games at San Antonio. Now the edge has completely changed and I'm sure the Hornets aren't as confident as they were after the Game 2 of this series and it's here where all the experience of the Spurs will come on top. However everything begins in the players. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili struggles in the games at New Orleans, just like almost the whole team actually. Duncan had even a catastrophic Game 1, shooting 1-9 FG and just getting 3 boards the whole game! Just like Ginobili was terrible in the Game 2, shooting 4-10 FG and committing 5 turnovers. But for the people who weren't pay attention to the Spurs last week, Duncan has a lot of health problems thanks to a flu and Ginobili had also some ankle problems. And if we look what happened in San Antonio, everything changed and also these two players were also better physically. In the two games at New Orleans, these two players shot 14-44 (40%) FG. But they improved a lot in the games at San Antonio, shooting 35-60 (58%) FG! The major change of Popovich was to try to stop the supporting cast of the Hornets, instead of trying to stop Paul. Deep down, it's the same to say: "Paul, you can score the points you want to score, but your team mates won't." And that's why we see Paul having impressive numbers in the attack and the team losing by 11 and 20 points. I remember that Paul in the Game 3 shot 15-25 FG and scored 35 points and in the Game 4 shot 10-16 FG and scored 23 points, but his number of assists went down big time and that was what Popovich wanted to. Paul in the games at San Antonio just made 9 and 5 assists. Now the question is: what will Byron Scott do to try to stop the Spurs and to release Paul? The Hornets won't be able to stop the Spurs, as with an healthy Duncan the big three of the Spurs are in great form and Scott can't double team Duncan, as he will pass the ball to Manu or Parker. As he can't double team Manu or Parker, as Duncan will have enough space in the frontcourt to score a lot of points. We are talking about three players who can create their own shot and who don't need a lot of space to shoot well to the basket and that doesn't happen with the Hornets. I mean Paul and West can do it, but what about Peja, Chandler or Petterson? They can't! Besides that, the Spurs have now a 6th man who is helping the team a lot, Michael Finley, who shot 9-14 FG at San Antonio, while the 6th man of the Hornets has been struggling since the beginning of the series. Jannero Pargo can't be a factor on this series: 1-6 FG, 2-6 FG, 1-7 FG and in the last game, 4-15 FG. Finally I was in doubt about taking the spread or the moneyline in here, but if the game is a ballgame and decided in the last minute, surely the Spurs are the favorite to win the game. Remember the Game 1 of the Spurs against the Suns? That says it all, more clutch players and more experience is extremely important on the post season. So with all these factors, I'll take the Spurs outright today! Take Spurs moneyline in here.