Andre Gomes Available Picks

May, 03 2008 10:00pm EST
TOTAL: Over 184 (-110)
LOSS for -2 unit(s)

San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Hornets

I believe this series will be extremely close and their games won't have a lot of points, however if there is a game I believe it will end up being over, that game is today's game. The totals line is at 184 points, which is too conservative for today's game and that is explained for the fear of the bookies have that this series will have games with few points like it happened in the regular season. I'm talking about the two games of the Spurs against the Hornets, where the champs could only score 75 and 78 points. I was also concerned about that fact, but I went to research for factors which could have caused so weak offensive performances. And the main reason was probably the schedule the Spurs had during the regular season. In the game which ended 75-100 in 12/03, the Spurs played at 9/03 at Phoenix and at 10/03 they had an home game against Denver. So the game against the Hornets was their 3rd game in 4 days and always against top teams of the league. In the other match the Spurs lost at home by 78-102 at 26/01 the Spurs had also a very tough schedule. They played at Charlotte in 01/21, then they played at home against the Lakers at 01/23, then played at Miami at 01/24, just to comeback home to play at 01/26 against the Hornets. Just check an US map and you'll see the time the Spurs had to travel during that week.

With these two disasters of the Spurs explained, let's study the matchup. Both teams are coming to this game in a good offensive mood. Actually the Spurs who had some problems in the offense in the last days of the regular season are currently in a 8-2 O/U run in their last 10 games, something not common in San Antonio. On the other side, the Hornets dominated Dallas and scored an average of 110 points in their three home games against Dallas! Wow! The most impressive is that the point guards of the two teams are coming to this game with an amazing form. Just look at their numbers:

Parker:

51:28 26pts 5ast

39:47 32pts 7ast

40:30 41pts 12ast

29:19 18pts 3ast

41:18 31pts 8ast

Paul:

40:40 35pts 10ast

38:38 32pts 17ast

42:03 16pts 10ast

37:01 16pts 8ast

44:03 24pts 15ast

I believe these two players won't be stopped today, as with this game being the first one of the series, these teams won't be capable of stopping their opponents at 100% yet. A line of 184 points to go under needs the attacks of both teams to be stopped by the defenses and that is unlikely to happen today. Parker, Duncan, Paul and West and shooting well and they will prove that today. Take the over in here.