Andre Gomes Available Picks

June, 15 2008 9:05pm EST
ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -7 (-110)
LOSS for -3 unit(s)

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers

Game 5 of the finals, which can be the last one if Boston wins today. If you remember I took the Lakers in the past game as a DD and there isn't much to say about this game, as we all know what happened, with Boston making one of the biggest comebacks ever in the NBA finals. And when they came close to the Lakers in the 3rd quarter, it was evident the Lakers had no physical and mental power to compete with Boston in the final quarter. However it's important to refer that the circumstances were special and in a surprising way, Boston was favored by that. But later I'll explain this better.

The key for this game was obviously in the 3rd quarter where Boston managed to erase the gap they had, but it was the circumstances which helped the team: Perkins got injured and he was replaced by PJ Brown. That happened with the score being 48-61. Then one minute and 15 seconds after that, the Lakers made a 5-0 run (48-66) and Doc Rivers took a gamble and took out PJ and put Posey in the field. After this moment, Boston used a small lineup until the end of the game, with Posey as a PF. When Phil Jackson got what Doc Rivers was doing, he changed the team to a small lineup too, but the result was at 61-72 already. Another curious fact is that the Lakers ended the game with 23 assists and 12 turnovers, but 15 of these 23 assists were made during the 1st half of the game and 10 of them during the first quarter. With all of these happening in the previous game, now what is important is to find out what it's going to happen today.

What we have watched in the Game 4 fill in some strong spots I've presented in my picks during the whole season. Basically the Game 5 has a clear bounce back spot for the Lakers and a possible letdown for Boston, as given the scenario of this game. The Game 4 had a very contradictory psychological effects on both teams. However it's important to say that between the Game 4 and today's game the players had two off days to rest and in a certain way this will help the Lakers, as just like between the Games 2, 3 and 4 there was just one day to rest, then the mental edge of Boston would be huge. Actually Phil Jackson gave the players a day off last Friday and they have just practiced on Saturday. On the other side, it's important to see that there are three players of Boston with physical problems: Rondo, Pierce and Perkins. The last one just has 50% of chances to play today, while Rondo and Pierce are limited. This factor combined with the next two games being in Boston, can make Doc Rivers be more careful in managing the time of the players than if the series was 2-2 by now.

The fact there wasn't a team until now in the history of the NBA (since the 2-3-2 format has been introduced) that was capable of winning the Games 6 and 7 on the road, combined with the fact that Boston is 12-1 at home in the post season give Boston a big advantage which can make them think that even if they don't win today, they can finish off the series at home. Today I expect a good bounce back from LA and Kobe was criticized from not taking the responsibility of taking the Game 4 under control (which is true) and today the team will give their max effort. Take the Lakers in here.