Andre Gomes Available Picks

June, 12 2008 9:00pm EST
ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -7.5 (-110)
LOSS for -5 unit(s)

Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers

Game 4 of this finals with the Lakers down by 1-2 right now and having the chance of tie the series tonight at home. The Game 3 was very important, as both teams had chances to win the game and fortunately for the Lakers, Vujacic and Kobe were capable of finishing off the game on their own. If you remember I took the under on that game, which was an easy win for us, as I told you not to bite the Game 2 4th quarter trap, which had a result of 41-25, as that score happened in very specific conditions, which hardly would happen again in the following game. The Game 3 was a terrible ball game, everybody saw that and it's only necessary to see what some superstars did to have the proof of that: Garnett 6-21 FG, Pierce 2-14 FG, Gasol 3-9 FG, Odom 2-9 FG and Fisher 1-6 FG. After reading what the players said after the game, there was just one reason for this disaster game: tiredness!

Center Kendrick Perkins said yesterday that in the fourth quarter, he noticed that after working particularly hard to get a defensive stop on a second chance for the Lakers, all five Celtics were jogging down the court, and captain Paul Pierce caused the team to burn a timeout because he was fatigued. Rivers said he told his players that can't happen.

"This was the first game that I had four or five players signal to pull them out," said Rivers. "I thought [Pierce] was injured because he just said, 'I need a timeout.' I called a timeout. He just wanted a blow. We needed that darned timeout, and I told our guys that as well."

'I think most of the players out there struggled physically,' Gasol said. 'You could tell the travel and Game 2 and 3 being so tight together, going across the country pretty much is an overseas trip. It was like going back to Spain. I think that was a factor.'

By analyzing this and having in account this factor in the Game 3, I can say that Boston lost their best chance to win a game at LA, as with tired teams, the defense has always the upperhand over the attack. So, Boston would have advantage over the Lakers, as we all know we are talking about Boston, which relies in the defense, while LA relies on their attack and by having wasted this great chance, it will be hard for Boston to be competitive today, as it's curious that this situation has passed twice with LA in this playoffs: when in the Game 5, Utah almost won at LA (104-111, with a last quarter of 23-30) and also in the Game 1 of the conference finals, when the Spurs lost a lead of 20 points and lost the game by 85-89 (13-24 in the last quarter). What happened in the following game is that the Lakers cameback to their normal level and won both games in a great style. Obviously, this doesn't explain my pick, but it serves as an example of what it might happen today.

The X factor of this pick will clearly be Rajon Rondo, who got injured in the Game 3 and he is questionable for tonight and in the best chance, he will play, but certainly not at 100%.

"He's sore and swollen, so he's out of practice," Rivers said of Rondo. "So we have to wait until (today) to see what we are going to do."

"His speed, clearly," Rivers said of what would be the chief handicap from a tender ankle. "There's other guys on our team that help us in other ways, like Eddie and Sam spacing the floor. Tony Allen, who we would consider even starting at point if Rajon couldn't go with his speed and power and his ability to guard Kobe (Bryant) a little bit."

His limitations will bring problems to Boston, as Rondo has been owning Fisher during the whole series until now. Fisher in the last two games had a combined of 4-14 FG 4 assists and 1 TO! That isn't good enough for a PG, while Rondo has been conduction the offense of Boston very well, having until now in this final 27 assists and 6 turnovers, while Fisher had 10 assists and 3 turnovers. With Rondo struggling, Doc Rivers will need to put either Cassell or House in the team. Cassell has been surprisingly not used a lot, as he has just played 13 minutes in the Game 1, 6 minutes in the Game 2 and 7 minutes in the Game 3. Actually in the Game 3, it was Eddie House who played most of the time when Rondo was out, almost 20 minutes and House doesn't have enough skills to be a point guard. He's a shooter and that will obligate Ray Allen and Pierce to construct the offensive game, when they would be supposed to be just there to finalize the plays.

Obviously today I expect a bounce back from Garnett and Pierce, but also I expect a better performance from the LA crew. Let's not forget that Kobe missed 7 FT attempts in the Game 3, while he had shot 13-13 FT in the first two games of the final. Having in account that today the players will be better physically than in the Game 3, the edge will be bigger for the Lakers, as their offense is more fluid than the attack of the Celtics. In the Game 3, the bookies pounded heavily the Lakers, putting them as a 9.5 points favorite! That was the reason why I ran away from them, but today 7.5 points is acceptable and I actually consider them to be fair. Boston lost a great chance to steal a game in LA and today this will be way harder for them to do ti. Take the Lakers here as a Double Dime Play in my NBA Finals Game of the Year!